International Rice Outlook, Baseline Projections 2014-2024

This outlook contains updated baseline rice projections from the Arkansas Global Rice Economics Program (AGREP) for the U.S. and international rice economies. The purpose of this document is to present the current state and the expected directions of the rice economies in the world by assessing their potential supply and demand paths over the next decade. This set of projections serves as a baseline for evaluating and comparing alternative macroeconomic, policy, weather, and technological scenarios. The estimates are intended for use by government agencies and officials, farmers, consumers, agribusinesses and other stakeholders who conduct medium- and long-term planning. The AGREP baseline projections are grounded in a series of assumptions about the general economy, agricultural policies, weather, and technological change. It is generally assumed that current agricultural policies will continue in the United States and other countries reported in this study. The projections included in this outlook are based on information available as of January 2015. In light of the volatility of the global rice economy, a stochastic analysis is included in this report to provide a better understanding of the probable distribution of future outcomes. The stochastic estimates establish likely upper and lower bounds for selected variables.