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Risk Assessment in Economic Feasibility Analysis: The Case of Ethanol Production in Texas

Author

Listed:
  • Richardson, James W.
  • Herbst, Brian K.
  • Outlaw, Joe L.
  • Anderson, David P.
  • Klose, Steven L.
  • Gill, Robert Chope, II

Abstract

The objective of this study is to demonstrate the benefits of quantifying the economic viability of a proposed agribusiness under risk relative to a feasibility study which ignores risk. To achieve this objective, the economic viability of a 50 MMGPY ethanol facility in Texas is analyzed over a 10-year period in two ways: with no risk and with historical risk for prices and costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Richardson, James W. & Herbst, Brian K. & Outlaw, Joe L. & Anderson, David P. & Klose, Steven L. & Gill, Robert Chope, II, 2006. "Risk Assessment in Economic Feasibility Analysis: The Case of Ethanol Production in Texas," Research Reports 42095, Texas A&M University, Agricultural and Food Policy Center.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:tamfrr:42095
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.42095
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/42095/files/RR%2006-3.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Frosch, Brian J. & Fumasi, Roland J. & Richardson, James W. & Outlaw, Joe L. & Herbst, Brian K., 2008. "Estimating and comparing alternative ethanol processes and feedstock choices," Integration of Agricultural and Energy Systems Conference, February 12-13, 2008, Atlanta, Georgia 48709, Farm Foundation.
    2. Fumasi, Roland J. & Richardson, James W. & Outlaw, Joe L., 2008. "The Economics Of Growing And Delivering Cellulosic Feedstocks In The Beaumont, Texas Area," 2008 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2008, Dallas, Texas 6788, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    3. Flanders, Archie & Luke-Morgan, Audrey S. & Shumaker, George A. & McKissick, John C., 2007. "Economic Impacts of Ethanol Production in Georgia," 2007 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2007, Mobile, Alabama 34820, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    4. Dlamini, Thula S. & Fraser, Gavin C.G., 2010. "Economics of Meat Production from the Springbuck in the Eastern Cape Karoo," 2010 AAAE Third Conference/AEASA 48th Conference, September 19-23, 2010, Cape Town, South Africa 96181, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    5. Fumasi, Roland J. & Klose, Steven L. & Kaase, Greg H. & Richardson, James W. & Outlaw, Joe L., 2008. "Viability of cellulosic feedstock production from producer to biorefinery," Integration of Agricultural and Energy Systems Conference, February 12-13, 2008, Atlanta, Georgia 48716, Farm Foundation.
    6. Morris, Brittany D. & Richardson, James W. & Frosch, Brian J. & Outlaw, Joe L. & Rooney, William L., 2009. "Economic Feasibility of Ethanol Production from Sweet Sorghum Juice in Texas," 2009 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2009, Atlanta, Georgia 46852, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.

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    Keywords

    Risk and Uncertainty;

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