IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/sobr06/148739.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modelo De Previsão Univariado Para Preços De Leite Pagos Aos Produtos Nas Principais Regiões Brasileiras

Author

Listed:
  • FACHINELLO, ARLEI LUIZ
  • PONCHIO, LEANDRO AUGUSTO

Abstract

Este trabalho visa estimar um modelo de previsão univariado, com horizonte de três meses, para a série preço médio real de leite pago aos produtores nos estados de Minas Gerias, Goiás São Paulo e no Paraná. Foram então testados vários modelos ARIMA e SARIMA, do qual foram selecionados oito modelos, sendo dois modelos para cada estado. A metodologia utilizada foi o modelo de Box-Jenkins. Constatou-se neste trabalho que tanto os modelos ARIMA como SARIMA mostram-se adequados na previsão dos preços reais nos quatro estados pesquisados. Ademais, os modelos univariados demonstram ser uma ferramenta útil para previsões no curto prazo, dada a sua simplicidade e capacidade preditiva.

Suggested Citation

  • Fachinello, Arlei Luiz & Ponchio, Leandro Augusto, 2006. "Modelo De Previsão Univariado Para Preços De Leite Pagos Aos Produtos Nas Principais Regiões Brasileiras," 44th Congress, July 23-27, 2006, Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil 148739, Sociedade Brasileira de Economia, Administracao e Sociologia Rural (SOBER).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:sobr06:148739
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.148739
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/148739/files/976.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.148739?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:sobr06:148739. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/soberea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.