Global Plastic projections to 2050: economic drivers and environmental consequences

Plastics are one of the most commonplace materials on the planet. In 2015, global plastics production reached 407 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa). If growth persists at similar rates, plastics production is expected to reach 1 600 Mtpa in 2050. The extraction of materials required for plastics production, as well as the use and disposal of plastic products is creating significant environmental pressure, with serious consequences for ecosystem, health,…. While projections of plastic use already exist in the published literature, they are generally linked to projection of specific sectors, or are the results of engineering models that describe in details the lifecycle of plastic commodities but do not include these details into a global macroeconomic framework. This paper present more to make some realistic projections to 2050 about plastic production, use and waste as they are based on a dynamic CGE model (the ENV-Linkages model). This paper is built on modelling methodology developed for material projections of the recent OECD Global Material Resources Outlook (2019). In this perspective, this paper take advantage of the new GTAP10 database split of the old “crp” sectors into 3 new sectors, including plastic. The final objective of the paper is to improve knowledge and projections of the economic drivers of the production and use of plastic to support better policy making that aims at sustaining economic growth while improving environmental quality. This will be achieved by gathering existing information on plastic to finally enhance projections about the economic drivers of refined materials (in particular plastic) throughout the whole economic value chains. The paper would also propose projections of plastics waste under different baseline scenarios, including updated SSP growth scenarios.