IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/pugtwp/332845.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Economic implications of relaxation of China's one-child policy -a dynamic general equilibrium analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Peng, Xiujian
  • Chen, Wei
  • Adams. Philip

Abstract

China has experienced rapid fertility decline since 1970 in response to various social, economic and policy factors. The fast fertility decline combining with the increase in the life expectancy has created a dramatic change in China’s population age structure. According to UN’s medium variant population projection, the proportion of population aged 65 and over will increase from10.5% in 2015 to 11.7% in 2020 and further to 23.9% in 2050. Meanwhile its working age population aged 15 to 64 declined at 2015 and will continue to decline. To respond to anxieties regarding to labor shortage and rapid population ageing, the Chinese government finally eased its unpopular and decades-old one child policy in the early 2014. Couples who are either from one-child families are allowed to have a second child. This policy has been further relaxed in the early 2016. Couples who currently have one child can have second child. Any such policy change will affect the fertility rate with implications for the future demographic structure and population size. Both changes in population structure and in population size have wide-ranging economic implications. This paper will explore the economic implications of this new population control policy. First, two sets of population projections from 2016 to 2050 will be conducted: Scenario one - population projection with old one-child policy; and scenario two – population projection with new population control policy. Then, a dynamic CGE model of the Chinese economy- CHINGEM model will be used to analyze the economic effects of the relaxation of one-child policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Peng, Xiujian & Chen, Wei & Adams. Philip, 2017. "Economic implications of relaxation of China's one-child policy -a dynamic general equilibrium analysis," Conference papers 332845, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332845
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/332845/files/8710.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labor and Human Capital;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332845. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gtpurus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.