IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/pugtwp/332804.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Employment effects of trade reform in the Vietnamese banking industry

Author

Listed:
  • Dinh, Huong

Abstract

In response to the call for evidence of sectoral employment impacts of services trade reform, the paper examines how trade liberalisation in the Vietnam’s banking sector would change employment between sectors and total employment under in two macroeconomic settings: fixed versus variable total labour supply. Using the FTAP-VN model and GTAP 7 Database, the paper finds that potential trade reform in Vietnam’s banking sector could have significant impacts on employment across industries in the economy regardless of the labour supply assumptions. Apart from the employment relocation effect as in the fixed labour supply, trade reform with a variable labour supply would expand jobs in all industries, increasing total employment by 7.1%. Trade reform would most benefit employment in the financial services itself and the industries with close linkages with the financial sector and facing the highest reduction in the relative price of labour to capital. In any cases, services would gain the most in terms of job creation from the trade reform. Services would also absorb most of the increased labour supply, followed by manufacturing and agriculture and mining. With a fixed labour supply, trade reform would encourage a substitution of unskilled labour for skilled labour across industries, placing skilled labour in a relatively disadvantaged position. With a variable labour supply, the relatively higher demand for skilled labour would lead to a higher employment growth of skilled labour compared with unskilled labour. In the next few years, in order to avoid a shortage of skilled labour and consequent pressure on wages, Vietnam would need to invest in education and training to create a better skilled labour force, particularly in banking and finance.

Suggested Citation

  • Dinh, Huong, 2016. "Employment effects of trade reform in the Vietnamese banking industry," Conference papers 332804, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332804
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/332804/files/8296.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Benston, George J & Kaufman, George G, 1996. "The Appropriate Role of Bank Regulation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(436), pages 688-697, May.
    2. Huong Dinh, 2013. "Impact of Regulatory Barriers to Trade in Banking Services," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Philippa Dee (ed.), Priorities and Pathways in Services Reform Part I — Quantitative Studies, chapter 3, pages 67-109, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Nora Dihel & Ben Shepherd, 2007. "Modal Estimates of Services Barriers," OECD Trade Policy Papers 51, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. , Aisdl, 2016. "Employment effects of trade reform in the Vietnamese banking industry," OSF Preprints ja4yg, Center for Open Science.
    2. Beck, Thorsten & Laeven, Luc, 2006. "Resolution of failed banks by deposit insurers : cross-country evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3920, The World Bank.
    3. Randall S. Kroszner, 1999. "Is the Financial System Politically Independent? Perspectives on the Political Economy of Banking and Financial Regulation," CRSP working papers 492, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
    4. Pavel Ciaian & d'Artis Kancs & Jan Pokrivcak, 2008. "Comparative Advantages, Transaction Costs and Factor Content of Agricultural Trade: Empirical Evidence from the CEE," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2008_03, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    5. Ingo Borchert & Batshur Gootiiz & Aaditya Mattoo, 2014. "Policy Barriers to International Trade in Services: Evidence from a New Database," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 28(1), pages 162-188.
    6. Lionel Fontagné & Cristina E Mitaritonna & José E Signoret, 2016. "Estimated Tariff Equivalents of Services NTMs," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01476543, HAL.
    7. Philipp Bagus & David Howden, 2016. "The economic and legal significance of “full” deposit availability," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 243-254, February.
    8. Massimo Geloso Grosso & Hildegunn Kyvik Nordås & Frédéric Gonzales & Iza Lejárraga & Sébastien Miroudot & Asako Ueno & Dorothée Rouzet, 2014. "Services Trade Restrictiveness Index (STRI): Legal and Accounting Services," OECD Trade Policy Papers 171, OECD Publishing.
    9. David Howden & Amadeus Gabriel, 2015. "The Interest Rate Brake on Maturity Transformation," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(4), pages 1100-1111, October.
    10. Ezzat, Riham Ahmed & Aboushady, Nora, 2018. "Do restrictive regulatory policies matter for telecom performance? Evidence from MENA countries," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 60-72.
    11. Borchert, Ingo & Gootiiz, Batshur & Grover, Arti & Mattoo, Aaditya, 2012. "Landlocked or policy locked ? how services trade protection deepens economic isolation," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5942, The World Bank.
    12. Nana, Ganesh & Sanderson, Kel & Hodgson, Rob, 2009. "Economic Impacts of Immigration: Scenarios Using a Computable General Equilibrium Model of the New Zealand Economy," Conference papers 331885, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    13. Nesreen Barakat, 2012. "Arab Passengers’ Airlines Framework and Performance: Jordan Case," Working Papers 727, Economic Research Forum, revised 2012.
    14. Łukasz Matuszczak, 2019. "What are the determinants of international trade in services? Evidence from firm-level data for Poland," Working Papers 2019-20, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    15. David T. Llewellyn & Tim Congdon, 2023. "Bank regulation: Has the regulation pendulum swung too far?," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(2), pages 171-183, June.
    16. Ghassan Omet & Ibrahim Saif & Hadeel Yaseen, 2008. "Market Discipline and Deposit Insurance: Evidence from Some Middle Eastern Banks," Working Papers 391, Economic Research Forum, revised 01 Jan 2008.
    17. Kroszner, Randall S., 1999. "Is the Financial System Politically Independent? Perspectives on the Political Economy of Banking and Financial Regulation," Working Papers 151, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.
    18. Hertel, Thomas W. & Martin, Will & Leister, Amanda M., 2010. "Potential Implications of the Special Safeguard Mechanism (SSM): the Case of Wheat," Conference papers 331943, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    19. Fontagné, Lionel & Mitaritonna, Cristina, 2013. "Assessing barriers to trade in the distribution and telecom sectors in emerging countries," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 57-78, January.
    20. Reisman, Matthew & Vu, Danielle, 2012. "Nontariff Measures in the Global Retailing Industry," Conference papers 332292, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332804. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gtpurus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.