China's Long Term Energy Demand Forecast——An application of a hybrid model of CGE and energy demand modules

State Information Center (SIC) started to develope a hybrid model of CGE and energy demand modules from 2014. To build the model, three principles are adopted: the forecast of final energy demand depends on macroeconomic development and industrial change; The primary energy demands are reversely calculated by final energy demand; The primary energy supply will meet the demand. Based on the hybrid model, we carried out the scenario studies on China’s long term energy demand estimation. The basic conclusions include: 1) Following that the economic development will change to a new pattern, the energy demand growth will be much slower relative to the last decade; 2) total energy consumption will be about 5000 Mtce at 2020 and 6000 Mtce at the reference scenario, the coal consumption has entered a stable period, kept at 4200 Mt to 2030, and share on total primary energy will be reduce to lower than 60% at 2020 and 50% at 2030; 3) If the supply-side reformation was accelerated, the total primary energy demand will reduced to 4800 at 2020.