Climate Change, Agriculture and Gender in Latin America: a MIRAGE-CC approach

This paper seeks to provide a systematic analysis of the economic consequences of the impact of climate change on agricultural yields by 2050, with a special focus on Latin America. In this paper we combine climate models with a worldwide CGE model to analyze the economic impacts of climate change on Latin America (LAC). To achieve these goals, the MIRAGE-CC model is updated to focus on LAC countries and modified to include the gender dimension. Preliminary results show that climate change has a differentiated impact among countries in Latin America: while in Argentina and the rest of Latin American countries there is a positive impact on real income and agriculture production, Brazil and Central American countries are negatively affected. At the household level, we find significant changes in consumption patterns, especially in the rest of Latin American countries, where real consumption of vegetables increases above 8% depending on the scenario, and real consumption of oilseeds, wheat and maize decline significantly.