IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/pugtwp/332394.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Trade and Investment Among BRICS: Analysis of Impact of Tariff Reduction and Trade Facilitation Based on Dynamic Global CGE Model

Author

Listed:
  • Wu, Libo
  • Yin, Xiangshuo
  • Li, Changhe
  • Qian, Haoqi
  • Chen, Taoran
  • Tang, Weiqi

Abstract

So far, there are few researches based on GTAP model focusing on the inter-regional trade activities among BRICS countries. Specifically, few studies have paid special attention to tariff exemption or trade facilitation scenario analysis. On the other hand, these topics broadly exist in global, multilateral and bilateral trade agreements and dialogues. One of the most prominent issues calling for in-depth study is the dynamic changing characteristics of emerging economies’ trade activities. BRICS countries differ greatly with respect to their trade volume, structure, dependence and environment, which lead to diversified sensitivities to tariff and trade facilitation. As the largest export-oriented emerging economy, China is more sensitive to tariffs and trade facilitation due to its large trade volume of manufactured goods and primary goods. Brazil and Russia are traditional resources exporter and thus they are less sensitive to tariffs and trade facilities because of the monopoly power. India is more dependent on service trade and commodity trade market is usually protected. However, since all of the BRICS counties have joined WTO and the global trade context is transforming, we need to involve the political and economic dynamics into global trade model to simulate the economic impacts. In this paper, we established a dynamic global CGE model to analyze the effects of free trade and trade facilitation in BRICS countries. In the settings of our model, we use adaptive expectation other than pure rational expectation to reflect the situation that BRICS countries are in the midst of transformation. The results show that the dynamic trade changing paths of these countries are quite different from those of developed countries. When trade facilitation increases, the results of China show that China’s agricultural products will see a huge growth in the future. One reason is that agricultural products are very sensitive to trade facilitation, especially sensitive to factors like custom clearance time. Car trade will also see a huge growth under the scenario that car tariffs are reduced.

Suggested Citation

  • Wu, Libo & Yin, Xiangshuo & Li, Changhe & Qian, Haoqi & Chen, Taoran & Tang, Weiqi, 2013. "Trade and Investment Among BRICS: Analysis of Impact of Tariff Reduction and Trade Facilitation Based on Dynamic Global CGE Model," Conference papers 332394, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332394
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/332394/files/6554.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chen, Z.M. & Chen, G.Q., 2011. "Embodied carbon dioxide emission at supra-national scale: A coalition analysis for G7, BRIC, and the rest of the world," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2899-2909, May.
    2. Scott McDonald & Sherman Robinson & Karen Thierfelder, 2007. "Globe: A SAM Based Global CGE Model using GTAP Data," Departmental Working Papers 14, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
    3. Hertel, Thomas & Hummels, David & Ivanic, Maros & Keeney, Roman, 2007. "How confident can we be of CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 611-635, July.
    4. Orlov, Anton & Grethe, Harald, 2012. "Carbon taxation and market structure: A CGE analysis for Russia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 696-707.
    5. Maldonado, Wilfredo Leiva & Tourinho, Octavio Augusto Fontes & Valli, Marcos, 2007. "Endogenous foreign capital flow in a CGE model for Brazil: The role of the foreign reserves," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 259-276.
    6. Lemelin, André & Robichaud, Véronique & Decaluwé, Bernard, 2013. "Endogenous current account balances in a world CGE model with international financial assets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 146-160.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Karov, Vuko & Roberts, Donna & Grant, Jason H. & Peterson, Everett, 2009. "An Empirical Assessment of Phytosanitary Regulations on US Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Imports," Conference papers 331832, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. repec:pra:mprapa:15377 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Dirk WILLENBOCKEL & Sherman ROBINSON, "undated". "The Global Financial Crisis, LDC Exports and Welfare: Analysis with a World Trade Model," EcoMod2009 21500092, EcoMod.
    4. De Lucia, Caterina & Bartlett, Mark, 2014. "Implementing a biofuel economy in the EU: Lessons from the SUSTOIL project and future perspectives for next generation biofuels," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 22-30.
    5. Osman, Rehab Osman Mohamed, 2012. "The EU Economic Partnership Agreements with Southern Africa: a computable general equilibrium analysis," Economics PhD Theses 0412, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    6. Farajzadeh, Zakariya & Zhu, Xueqin & Bakhshoodeh, Mohammad, 2017. "Trade reform in Iran for accession to the World Trade Organization: Analysis of welfare and environmental impacts," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 75-85.
    7. Hilel Hamadache & Sophie S. Drogue, 2014. "Staple food market regulation in Algeria, what is the alternative policy? A CGE analysis for wheat," Post-Print hal-02795719, HAL.
    8. Arief Anshory Yusuf, 2008. "INDONESIA-E3: An Indonesian Applied General Equilibrium Model for Analyzing the Economy, Equity, and the Environment," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200804, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Sep 2008.
    9. Adams, Philip D., 2008. "Insurance against Catastrophic Climate Change: How Much Will an Emissions Trading Scheme Cost Australia?," Conference papers 331770, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    10. Hermeling, Claudia & Klement, Jan Henrik & Koesler, Simon & Köhler, Jonathan & Klement, Dorothee, 2015. "Sailing into a dilemma," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 34-53.
    11. Aaron B. Gertz & James B. Davies & Samantha L. Black, 2019. "A CGE Framework for Modeling the Economics of Flooding and Recovery in a Major Urban Area," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(6), pages 1314-1341, June.
    12. Weng, Yuwei & Chang, Shiyan & Cai, Wenjia & Wang, Can, 2019. "Exploring the impacts of biofuel expansion on land use change and food security based on a land explicit CGE model: A case study of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 514-525.
    13. Breisinger, Clemens & Ecker, Olivier & Funes, Jose & Yu, Bingxin, 2010. "Food as the basis for development and security: A strategy for Yemen," IFPRI discussion papers 1036, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    14. Monge, Juan J. & Bryant, Henry L. & Gan, Jianbang & Richardson, James W., 2016. "Land use and general equilibrium implications of a forest-based carbon sequestration policy in the United States," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 102-120.
    15. Yu, Jisang & Villoria, Nelson B. & Hendricks, Nathan P., 2019. "The Incidence of Foreign Market Accessibility on Farmland Rental Rates," 2019: Recent Advances in Applied General Equilibrium Modeling: Relevance and Application to Agricultural Trade Analysis, December 8-10, 2019, Washington, DC 339333, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    16. Kym Anderson & Ernesto Valenzuela & Lee Ann Jackson, 2008. "Recent and Prospective Adoption of Genetically Modified Cotton: A Global Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Economic Impacts," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(2), pages 265-296, January.
    17. Haqiqi , Iman & Bahalou Horeh , Marziyeh, 2013. "Macroeconomic Impacts of Export Barriers in a Dynamic CGE Model," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 8(3), pages 117-150, July.
    18. Russell Hillberry & David Hummels, 2021. "Tom Hertel’s Influence and Its Lessons about Academic Inquiry," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Peter Dixon & Joseph Francois & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe (ed.), POLICY ANALYSIS AND MODELING OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY A Festschrift Celebrating Thomas Hertel, chapter 2, pages 9-39, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    19. Ayodele, Olumide S. & Obafemi, Frances N., 2006. "Fiscal and Quasi-Fiscal Effects of the Parallel Exchange Premium in Nigeria," Conference papers 331503, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    20. Samargandi, Nahla, 2017. "Sector value addition, technology and CO2 emissions in Saudi Arabia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 868-877.
    21. Wu, X.D. & Guo, J.L. & Chen, G.Q., 2018. "The striking amount of carbon emissions by the construction stage of coal-fired power generation system in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 358-369.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332394. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gtpurus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.