Taking Stock of the Doha Round Progress vis-à-vis Developing country's Ambitions

There is consensus that unlike in the previous rounds of trade negotiations, the developing countries have in the current Doha Round enhanced their participation and voice. However, pessimism remains that when the results of the Doha Round are finally audited, they might not measure up to the early ambitions of the round. For Africa for instance, such a verdict would be quite disheartening given the resources that the countries have expended to ensure that this time round, real and credible results are achieved that will enhance the continent’s chance of moving out of the margins of the global trade to the centre. It is for this reason that an early audit of the possible results of the Doha Round becomes necessary. Such an audit will point out areas where potential results, based on analysis of current version of negotiations modalities may not match ambition in Doha mandate. This study provides a quantitative evaluation of the Doha Round in terms of the market access for industrial and agriculture products and the possible consequences of the trade liberalization process. It analysis of the impact of the reforms put forward by the July Package concluded in Geneva in July 2008. The tariff reduction scenarios under review fit in with the commitments undertaken in the July Package. and to present the potential economic implications of the unpacked modalities. This includes the review of the most recent works analyzing the Doha results using global general equilibrium models. Depending on the outcome of the review of recent works using global CGE models, further empirical analysis of the modalities (in agriculture, NAMA, services and trade facilitation) are proposed using the recent GTAP version 7 database. The main contribution will be the focus of the empirical analysis on the developing countries, taking advantage of the incorporation of more countries from the region in the new version of the database.