Indonesian Interests in the Agricultural Negotiations under the Doha Development Agenda: An Analysis of the "July 2004 Package"

This paper takes the ‘July 2004 package’ as a starting point to assess Indonesian interests in the agricultural negotiations under the WTO Doha Development Agenda. The ambitions on reforming domestic support in OECD countries seem to be moderate, at best, and a number of developing countries are less inclined to open their markets through improved access. Members now agree on far reaching exemptions from reforms in individual products (special products for developing countries and sensitive products for developed countries). This paper uses a large-scale economic model of trade and production (GTAP) to identify the possible impact of a realistic global liberalisation scenario in the spirit of the ‘July 2004 package’ on the Indonesian economy. Given the prevailing quite liberal trade regime in Indonesia the expected overall impacts on national income, trade and production are positive, but rather limited. For Indonesian agriculture global liberalisation offers positive prospects for vegetable oils and for animal products. There are small adverse effects on the protected rice and sugar sectors, which can be managed at modest costs by designating rice as special product (SP). An import ban or restrictive quota regime would entail significant welfare losses.