Trade Policy and Factor Market Impacts on the RF Economy in Conditions of Acceding to the WTO

The objective of this paper consists in estimation of trade policy and factor market im-pacts on the RF economy taking into account possible consequences of Russia's accession to the WTO. To reach this objective a single country static general equilibrium model for Russia has been used. The principal features of the model were developed at International Food Policy Re-search Institute (http://www.ifpri.org) . This model allows to conduct scenario analysis under different assumptions on factors mobility providing certain closures for external trade balance, saving-investment balance and government balance as well. The main element of the model is original the RF Input-Output Table for 2000. It com-bines the information on 24 groups of activities and commodities. For the purposes of modeling applied and SAM construction certain reorganization of original IOT has been made. After reor-ganization SAM used in applied modeling includes 28 types of activities and 27 commodity groups. Applied analysis consists in conducting scenario of full liberalization of domestic market. The impacts of trade policy are estimated under different assumptions on capital and labor mo-bility to reflect the role of factor market and the influence of institutions on domestic economy. Such approach allows us to demonstrate, that availability and mobility of production factors in different activities is a key element for successful results of possible structural and trade policy reforms. There are three parts in the paper. The first part is devoted to description of the main macroeconomic indicators and the structure of the RF factors, commodities and services markets in 2000. Then closures for the simulations and factors market balancing assumptions are speci-fied. The third part of the paper contains the results of scenario analysis, which reflect the im-pacts of liberal trade regime on the RF domestic commodities markets under different assump-tions on factors mobility. This analysis was conducted using both the RF one country CGE and GTAP models in order to compare changes in the main macroeconomic indicators (GDP and its components).