The Impacts of Climate Change on the Generation Of Hydroelectric Energy and its Effects on the Brazilian Economy Between 2020 and 2050

The processes of global warming and climate change affect the Brazilian national energy system, and the direct and indirect effects are extended to the economy from renewable and nonrenewable sources. In this sense, the objective of this work is to verify how the supply’s reduction of hydroelectric energy, caused by climate change, would impact the national economy and how the thermoelectric and wind power plants would compensate for this restriction. The work used a Computable General Equilibrium model (CGE), denominated BeGreen, to capture the effects of changes in energy sources on the Brazilian economy between 2020 and 2050, using the IPCC scenarios A2 and B2 as reference. The results of the simulations indicate price inflation and a fall in economic indicators, even when other sources of energy are stimulated to compensate for the drop in hydroelectricity generation. In terms of GDP, contrasting with the base scenario, there is a reduction of 0.14% when there is compensation through other sources of energy and a reduction of 0.38% when there is no compensation.