Rice Importation Trend in Nigeria and Its Effects on Local Production: 1970-2013

This study analysed rice importation trend in Nigeria and its effect on local production from 1970 - 2013. Data were collected from secondary sources only. The study used annual time series data on quantity of locally produced rice, quantity of imported rice, rice yield and rice consumption. The ordinary least square (OLS) regression technique was employed for data analysis. Augmented Dickey Fuller test) as used to check for stationarity of the variables. The line graph was used to check for the pattern of growth on each of the variables, while the semi log growth model was used to check for the quantitative growths presented as instantaneous and cumulative growth in the various variables). The results of the study revealed that: instantaneous growth in local rice production stood at 5. 7%, cumulative growth 5.9%, while rice importation was 12.3% and 12.7% respectively. This implies a faster rate of growth for rice production than importation. Rice yield had an instantaneous growth of -0.15% and cumulative growth -0.14%, while rice consumption was 6.58% and 6.8% respectively, implying a decline in rice yield which was not commensurate with the growth in rice consumption. Increasing the quantity of Nigerian rice production thr~ugh improving Nigerian rice yield to cushion the expected Nigerian rice consumption forecast will be beneficial to the Nigerian economy than importation of foreign rice which will deplete the nation's foreign reserve.