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Financial And Risk Analysis Of Maize Technology In Ethiopia, Based On Ceres-Maize Model Results

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  • Crawford, Eric W.
  • Howard, Julie A.
  • Kelly, Valerie A.

Abstract

This paper presents a financial and risk analysis of improved versus traditional maize production technology in Ethiopia, based on yields simulated with the CERES-Maize crop growth model (Schulthess and Ward, 2000). The purpose is to analyze the potential performance of the SG2000/Ministry of Agriculture program technology under less favorable meteorological conditions (rainfall level and distribution), and in areas with lower agroecological potential than those covered by the SG2000/MOA program through 1998. At the time of this study, expansion of the MOA program into lower potential zones seemed likely. Results show that use of fertilizer and improved seed is highly profitable under a variety of assumptions about crop growth conditions, maize prices, and fertilizer costs. Risk is examined using simple sensitivity and breakeven analysis, and stochastic dominance analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Crawford, Eric W. & Howard, Julie A. & Kelly, Valerie A., 2000. "Financial And Risk Analysis Of Maize Technology In Ethiopia, Based On Ceres-Maize Model Results," Staff Paper Series 11799, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:midasp:11799
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.11799
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/11799/files/sp00-47.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Howard, Julie A. & Kelly, Valerie A. & Stepanek, Julie & Crawford, Eric W. & Demeke, Mulat & Maredia, Mywish K., 1999. "Green Revolution Technology Takes Root In Africa: The Promise and Challenge of the Ministry of Agriculture/SG2000 Experiment with Improved Cereals Technology in Ethiopia; Statistical Annex and Copies ," Food Security International Development Working Papers 54579, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    2. Howard, Julie A. & Kelly, Valerie A. & Demeke, Mulat & Maredia, Mywish K. & Stepanek, Julie, 1999. "Green Revolution Technology Takes Root in Africa: The Promise and Challenge of the Ministry of Agriculture/Sg2000 Experiment with Improved Cereals Technology in Ethiopia," Food Security International Development Policy Syntheses 11400, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    3. Wafula, Benson M., 1995. "Applications of crop simulation in agricultural extension and research in Kenya," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 399-412.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kelly, Valerie A., 2005. "Farmers' Demand for Fertilizer in Sub-Saharan Africa," Staff Paper Series 11612, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.

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