Thünen-Baseline 2024 - 2034: Agrarökonomische Projektionen für Deutschland

This report presents selected results of the Thünen-Baseline 2024-2034 as well as the underlying assumptions. The Thünen-Baseline represents a base scenario that describes the development of agricultural markets under given macro-economic conditions assuming no change in the current policy framework. Central assumptions are the continuation of the current agricultural policy and the implementation of already decided policy changes as well as the extrapolation of exogenous drivers based on historical trends. The report includes projection results on agricultural trade, prices, demand, production, income and environmental indicators. The presentation of results focuses mainly on the developments of the German agricultural sector up to the year 2034 compared to the average level of the base period 2020-2022. The results show that the EU can maintain its position in the global agricultural trade until 2034. Prices of agricultural products are projected to decline at the beginning of the projection from the high levels of the base year period but are expected to recover by 2034. In Germany, the cultivation of cereals is projected to decline due to changes in price relations and a decline in agricultural land. In the livestock sector, the reduction in livestock numbers and decline in meat production observed in recent years will continue, particularly in pig farming, whereas poultry meat production is projected to experience slight growth until 2034. Moreover, a positive price development in the dairy market and further growth in milk yields lead to a moderate increase in milk deliveries. The average real income of farms declines by 17 percent over the projection period and will thus return to the average level of the last ten years by 2034.