Proceedings: 2nd International Conference on Food and Agricultural Economics: STUDY THE VOLATILITY EFFECT OF AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS ON AGRICULTURE'S SHARE OF GDP THE CASE OF EGYPT

This article aims to examine the long and short run relationship between agricultural exports and agriculture's share of GDP. Links between series considered are assessed by co-integration analysis by using Johansen co-integration technique and ECM- GARCH. Results indicate a positive link in the short and long term between agricultural exports and agriculture's share of GDP, as well as the cointegration between the pairs of series used also can be found; increases in agricultural exports have followed by increases in agriculture's share of GDP, Agriculture exports and agriculture’s share of GDP elasticities are being 0.62. Evidence of that past shocks and agricultural exports contribute to increase agriculture's share of GDP volatility is also found. To implement some of the policies that could be used to increase the export of agricultural products, it is relevant that the problems faced by farmers to export their products should be solved. The most important of these problems was the lack of commitment exporters’ of the forward contracts; thus such these contracts need to be controlled by the government and the application of fines for breach of the contracts.