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Can Evidence-Based Information Shift Preferences Towards Trade Policy?

Author

Listed:
  • Alfaro, Laura
  • Chen, Maggie
  • Chor, Davin

Abstract

We investigate whether and how evidence-based information—a concise statement of a research finding—can shape preferences for trade policies. Across survey experiments conducted over 2018-2022 on U.S. general population samples, information highlighting the link between trade and manufacturing job losses consistently raises expressed support for limits on trade. More strikingly, we find novel evidence of a backfire effect to information emphasizing the job gains in comparative advantage sectors or the price benefits from freer trade: exposure to such information induces protectionist policy choices, particularly among Republicans; this, in turn, further polarizes Republicans' and Democrats' preferences on trade policy, consistent with implications we derive from a model of prior-biased belief updating. Efforts to communicate the benefits of trade can thus have unintended consequences; averting these will require addressing prior beliefs and broadly-held concerns over the impact of trade on jobs and over trade with China.
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Suggested Citation

  • Alfaro, Laura & Chen, Maggie & Chor, Davin, 2022. "Can Evidence-Based Information Shift Preferences Towards Trade Policy?," 2022: Transforming Global Value Chains, December 11-13, Clearwater Beach, FL 339437, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iats22:339437
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.339437
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    Cited by:

    1. Jordi Brandts & Isabel Busom & Cristina Lopez-Mayan, 2024. "Do Voice and Social Information Contribute to Changing Views about Rent Control Policy?," Working Papers 1428, Barcelona School of Economics.
    2. Dolls, Mathias & Schüle, Paul & Windsteiger, Lisa, 2022. "Affecting Public Support for Economic Policies: Evidence from a Survey Experiment about Rent Control in Germany," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264060, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Fahr, Stephan & Senner, Richard & Vismara, Andrea, 2024. "The globalization of climate change: amplification of climate-related physical risks through input-output linkages," Working Paper Series 2942, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; International Relations/Trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F6 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization

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