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Can Evidence-Based Information Shift Preferences Towards Trade Policy?

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  • Alfaro, Laura
  • Chen, Maggie
  • Chor, Davin

Abstract

Amid public skepticism about trade, we investigate whether evidence-based information—a concise statement of a research finding—can shape preferences towards trade policy. Across survey experiments conducted over 2018-2022 on U.S. general population samples, we consistently uncover a “backfire effect”: Information that highlights benefits from trade (job gains in productive sectors or lower consumer prices) induces protectionist policy choices, particularly among Republicans. We interpret this finding through the lens of a model of prior-biased belief updating. Averting this backfire effect will require addressing the prior beliefs—specifically, over the impact of trade on jobs and trade relations with China—that we find prevalent among respondents inclined toward protectionism.
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Suggested Citation

  • Alfaro, Laura & Chen, Maggie & Chor, Davin, 2022. "Can Evidence-Based Information Shift Preferences Towards Trade Policy?," 2022: Transforming Global Value Chains, December 11-13, Clearwater Beach, FL 339437, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iats22:339437
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.339437
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    Cited by:

    1. Dolls, Mathias & Schüle, Paul & Windsteiger, Lisa, 2022. "Affecting Public Support for Economic Policies: Evidence from a Survey Experiment about Rent Control in Germany," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264060, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Jordi Brandts & Isabel Busom & Cristina Lopez-Mayan, 2024. "Do Voice and Social Information Contribute to Changing Views about Rent Control Policy?," Working Papers 1428, Barcelona School of Economics.
    3. Fahr, Stephan & Senner, Richard & Vismara, Andrea, 2024. "The globalization of climate change: amplification of climate-related physical risks through input-output linkages," Working Paper Series 2942, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; International Relations/Trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F6 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization

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