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The war in Ukraine exposes supply tensions on global agricultural markets: Openness to global trade is needed to cope with the crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Glauben, Thomas
  • Svanidze, Miranda
  • Götz, Linde
  • Prehn, Sören
  • Jamali Jaghdani, Tinoush
  • Duric, Ivan
  • Kuhn, Lena

Abstract

The war in Ukraine has aggravated existing tensions on the agricultural commodities market. Since late 2021, prices for commodities such as grains and vegetable oils have reached record highs, surpassing even the levels of the global food price crises of more than a decade ago. Now, the invasion of Russian forces in Ukraine has sent prices soaring even higher. This has above all affected import-dependent countries in the MENA region and sub-Saharan Africa, which rely heavily on Russian and Ukrainian wheat. Disruptions to exports from the Black Sea region and high prices are further destabilizing food security in these regions. However, global demand for wheat is expected to be met in the current marketing year since countries such as Australia, India and the USA will increase exports to fill the gap left by Russia and Ukraine. It is difficult to predict what will happen beyond this marketing year, as this will be determined by the development of the current conflict in addition to agricultural fundamentals in key supply and demand regions. Global food systems and competitive international trade structures, in particular, are key to dealing with crises and mitigating the risks of food shortages. That way, disruptions in some exporting regions can be compensated for by exports from another. However, this requires greater collaboration in international trade. Any calls to move towards a centrally planned economy or autarky are strongly advised against, as this would only be to the detriment of food security in the Global South.

Suggested Citation

  • Glauben, Thomas & Svanidze, Miranda & Götz, Linde & Prehn, Sören & Jamali Jaghdani, Tinoush & Duric, Ivan & Kuhn, Lena, 2022. "The war in Ukraine exposes supply tensions on global agricultural markets: Openness to global trade is needed to cope with the crisis," IAMO Policy Briefs 327323, Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:iamopb:327323
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.327323
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    Cited by:

    1. Odening, Martin & Hüttel, Silke, 2022. "The Russia-Ukraine Conflict – Implications for Farms and Agricultural Markets," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 71(03), January.
    2. Wandel Jürgen, 2023. "Can the war in Ukraine thwart the green agricultural transformation in the EU? Political economy considerations regarding the case of Germany," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 59(2), pages 79-100, June.
    3. Ellßel, Raphaela & Wüstemann, Friedrich & Offermann, Frank & de Witte, Thomas, 2022. "Impact of the War in Ukraine on Farm Profitability and the Attractiveness of Environmental Measures in Germany," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 71(03), January.
    4. Hubeni, Yuriy & Zelisko, Nataliia & Krupa, Volodymyr, 2024. "Structural and Dynamic Changes in International Trade in Agricultural Products in Ukraine," Problems of World Agriculture / Problemy Rolnictwa Światowego, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, vol. 24(1), March.
    5. Götz, Linde Johanna & Svanidze, Miranda, 2023. "Getreidehandel und Exportbeschränkungen während des Ukrainekrieges," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 103(13 (Konfe), pages 37-41.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demand and Price Analysis; Food Security and Poverty; International Relations/Trade;
    All these keywords.

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