Agriculture Toward 2000: The Long Term Perspectives of Contemporary Issues in World Food and Agriculture

This paper presents the main feature of a recent major study by FAO, hereafter referred to as AT 2000. After outlining the scope and methodology of the study, this paper gives summary results and concludes with a brief identification of the salient aspects of the strategies suggested by the analysis. A purpose of the study was to provide governments and the United Nations with quantified perspectives of world and country group demand for, and production and trade of food and agricultural commodities, including implications for such areas as nutrition, investment, assistance, and research. Pre-publication results of the study were the major source for the food and agricultural component of the UN International Development Strategy (IDS) adopted in 1980. A second purpose was to provide FAO, its member governments, and other qualified users with a detailed quantification on a common pattern of possible alternative paths of change in the agricultural sector of 90 individual developing countries. The analytical instrument built for the study--the family of models, data bank, and analytical procedures--will be kept in working order. The results of the study for each of the 90 developing countries have been sent to the countries concerned, and, at the time of writing, comments on these results as well as agreement to release the individual country data without limitation are awaited.