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Agri-Commodity Price Dynamics: The Relationship Between Oil and Agricultural Market

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  • Rosa, Franco
  • Vasciaveo, Michela

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to analyze the interactions among the prices of some agricultural commodities in Italy and United States by using the time series analysis method. After a general overview of the world and European agri-markets, the agricultural commodity and oil prices are investigated in order to analyze the cross-market interactions and test the hypothesis that the increased volatility in agricultural prices is caused by the exogenous crude oil prices. For the analysis the data about the commodity spot price series of wheat, corn, soybeans in US and Italy and crude oil price are collected. The results suggest: i) the presence of causal nexus with an exogenous influence of the oil price on the agricultural commodities for the US markets; ii) the evidence of cointegration between US and Italian commodities supporting the unique price condition; iii) no clear evidence of causality between oil and Italian agri-commodities, suggesting that the oil volatility is transmitted directly to the US market and indirectly to the Italian one.

Suggested Citation

  • Rosa, Franco & Vasciaveo, Michela, 2012. "Agri-Commodity Price Dynamics: The Relationship Between Oil and Agricultural Market," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126738, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae12:126738
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.126738
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    Cited by:

    1. Ayinde, Opeyemi Eyitayo & Ilori, T. E. & Ayinde, K. & Babatunde, R. O., 2015. "Analysis of the Behaviour of Prices of Major Staple Foods in West Africa: A Case Study of Nigeria," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 7(4), pages 1-15, December.
    2. Duc Hong Vo & Tan Ngoc Vu & Anh The Vo & Michael McAleer, 2019. "Modeling the Relationship between Crude Oil and Agricultural Commodity Prices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-41, April.
    3. Chimaliro, Aubrey Victor, 2018. "Analysis of main determinants of soya bean price volatility in Malawi," Research Theses 334743, Collaborative Masters Program in Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    4. Miroslava Ivanova & Lilko Dospatliev, 2023. "Effects of Diesel Price on Changes in Agricultural Commodity Prices in Bulgaria," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-22, January.
    5. Monika Roman & Aleksandra Górecka & Joanna Domagała, 2020. "The Linkages between Crude Oil and Food Prices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-18, December.
    6. Ayinde, Opeyemi & Ilori, T.E. & Babatunde, R.O., 2015. "Impact Of Government Agricultural Policies On The Major Staple Food Prices In Nigeria (1966 - 2011)," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211188, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. Jha, Girish & Kumar, Rajeev & Singh, Alka & Pal, Suresh, 2015. "Changing pattern of energy use in Indian agriculture and linkage between energy and commodity prices," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211805, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. Korhan K. Gokmenoglu & Hasan Güngör & Festus Victor Bekun, 2021. "Revisiting the linkage between oil and agricultural commodity prices: Panel evidence from an Agrarian state," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5610-5620, October.

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    Keywords

    Production Economics;

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