Chinese Agricultural Foreign Direct Investment in Dairy: Could Germany Become a Chinese Cash Cow?

With a view to food security and sovereignty objectives, China is following an extensive strategy in outward foreign direct investments (OFDI) into the agribusiness sectors of industrialized countries in the recent decade. In light of this strategy, remarkable investments have been made in New Zealand’s dairy sector, currently provoking the scepticism of this nation’s policy makers and practitioners. The corresponding tentative support of such investments in New Zealand may bring Chinese investors into the situation to search for alternative target countries. Even though Germany is the largest dairy producer in the EU and a significant exporter of dairy products to China, it has yet to come into focus for these investments. However, there is little existing research examining Chinese OFDI in dairy or other agribusiness sectors in developed economies. To close this gap, this study aims to gauge the attractiveness of the German dairy industry for Chinese investment by the use of a case-specifically adapted PESTEL framework, considering factors which may act as either incentives or dampers. The assessment of these factors is conducted on the basis of an extensive systematic literature review and a descriptive analysis of secondary data. By focusing on Chinese entrance into the agriculture sector in a developed economy, this study offers insights for managers and policy makers, which may be applicable to dairy industries in other economies and other agricultural sectors in Germany and abroad.