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Agricultural Production with Change and Uncertainty: A Temporal Case Study Simulation of Colorado Potato Beetle

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  • Heikkila, Jaakko
  • Peltola, Jukka

Abstract

Changes in climatic and policy environments combined with uncertainty related to stochastic environmental fluctuations make design of invasive pest policy challenging. These external changes are often exacerbated by changes in the species characteristics. We discuss facing local change and uncertainty when deciding ex ante on a specific policy strategy. Our empirical case deals with an invasive agricultural pest, Colorado potato beetle, and agricultural production in Finland. Invasions are modelled as temporally random events and stochasticity in key variables is built into the analysis. The viability of two specific policy options is evaluated given uncertainty and local change.

Suggested Citation

  • Heikkila, Jaakko & Peltola, Jukka, 2005. "Agricultural Production with Change and Uncertainty: A Temporal Case Study Simulation of Colorado Potato Beetle," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24679, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae05:24679
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.24679
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Crop Production/Industries;

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