A sequential mathematical modeling approach for estimating supply curves for energy crops under different policy scenarios: A Greek case study

This article studies the potential of three perennial energy crops, miscanthus, arundo and poplar, to play such a role in the region of Karditsa, Greece. The relevant policy mix is analysed, discussed and outlined as a nexus of interrelated incentives provided by policy makers and the market. Supply curves for different energy crops can be used as a decision-making tool by all interested parties within a biomass-oriented supply chain; biomass producers can use them to decide on the economic feasibility and efficiency of a suggested energy crop, while industrial players may use them to determine contract prices that ensure long-term availability of inputs. For the purpose of energy crops supply curves estimation a sequential linear programming model is developed, which takes into consideration the deployment of farms’ decisions in time, illustrating crop mix and economic indicators in the medium term. As biomass price increases, arundo cultivation reveals significant possibility of expansion compared to miscanthus and poplar. On the other hand, durum wheat and set-aside are decreased significantly. Aggregate biomass supply curve moves upwards over the studied years.