IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/eaa120/109317.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An evaluation of the economic impact of Climate Change through a three-stages Discrete Stochastic Programming model

Author

Listed:
  • Cortignani, Raffaele
  • Dono, Gabriele
  • Doro, Luca
  • Ledda, Luigi
  • Mazzapicchio, Graziano

Abstract

The climate change in the agricultural sector acting on multiple weather variables at different times of the various crop cycles. In several cases by changing the mean level of variables (rainfall, temperature, etc..), in other cases by changing the distribution of events. This work provides an evaluation of the economic impact due to changes in multiple events, and to the associated uncertainty. For this reason, a classical two-stage stochastic programming model was extend into a three-stages model. The model is specified for an area of Sardinia, and examines the impact of climate change on rainfall and hence on the availability of water for agriculture, and on maximum temperatures and, therefore, on the requirements of some irrigated crops relevant to the agricultural economy of the area. The effect of climate change is obtained by comparing the results of scenarios that represent the climatic conditions in the current situation and in the future, obtained by projecting to 2015 the climate trends of the last fifty years. The results show that the agricultural sector of the area adapt itself with a low cost by use of land and cultural practices. This cost, however, is very high for some farms that suffer a significant reduction of the income. There is also an increase of the use of natural resources, in particularly groundwater. The economic impact of these changes is due primarily to the decreased of water availability in the future. The availability of water becomes the crucial factor to adapting to climate change, because the effects of temperature can be compensate by increased the use of water resources.

Suggested Citation

  • Cortignani, Raffaele & Dono, Gabriele & Doro, Luca & Ledda, Luigi & Mazzapicchio, Graziano, 2010. "An evaluation of the economic impact of Climate Change through a three-stages Discrete Stochastic Programming model," 120th Seminar, September 2-4, 2010, Chania, Crete 109317, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaa120:109317
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.109317
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/109317/files/Cortignani__Dono_Doro_Ledda_Mazzapicchio.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.109317?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Philip W. Gassman & Jimmy R. Williams & Verel W. Benson & R. César Izaurralde & Larry M. Hauck & C. Allan Jones & Jay D. Atwood & James Kiniry & Joan D. Flowers, 2005. "Historical Development and Applications of the EPIC and APEX Models," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 05-wp397, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    2. Ingham, Alan & Ma, Jie & Ulph, Alistair, 2007. "Climate change, mitigation and adaptation with uncertainty and learning," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5354-5369, November.
    3. Heinemann, A. B. & Hoogenboom, G. & de Faria, R. T., 2002. "Determination of spatial water requirements at county and regional levels using crop models and GIS: An example for the State of Parana, Brazil," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 177-196, January.
    4. Dono, Gabriele & Mazzapicchio, Graziano, 2010. "Uncertain water supply in an irrigated Mediterranean area: An analysis of the possible economic impact of climate change on the farm sector," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(6), pages 361-370, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dono, Gabriele & Cortignani, Raffaele & Doro, Luca & Ledda, Luigi & Roggero, PierPaolo & Giraldo, Luca & Severini, Simone, 2011. "Possible Impacts of Climate Change on Mediterranean Irrigated Farming Systems," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114436, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Lescot, Jean-Marie & Rousset, Sylvain & Souville, Genevieve, 2011. "Assessing Investment in Precision Farming for Reducing Pesticide Use in French Viticulture," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114387, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dono, Gabriele & Cortignani, Raffaele & Doro, Luca & Ledda, Luigi & Roggero, PierPaolo & Giraldo, Luca & Severini, Simone, 2011. "Possible Impacts of Climate Change on Mediterranean Irrigated Farming Systems," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114436, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Lychuk, Taras E. & Hill, Robert L. & Izaurralde, Roberto C. & Momen, Bahram & Thomson, Allison M., 2021. "Evaluation of climate change impacts and effectiveness of adaptation options on nitrate loss, microbial respiration, and soil organic carbon in the Southeastern USA," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    3. Richard S. J. Tol & In Chang Hwang & Frédéric Reynès, 2012. "The Effect of Learning on Climate Policy under Fat-tailed Uncertainty," Working Paper Series 5312, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    4. Dono, Gabriele & Cortignani, Raffaele & Doro, Luca & Giraldo, Luca & Ledda, Luigi & Pasqui, Massimiliano & Roggero, Pier Paolo, 2013. "Adapting to uncertainty associated with short-term climate variability changes in irrigated Mediterranean farming systems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 1-12.
    5. Hennessey, Ryan & Pittman, Jeremy & Morand, Annette & Douglas, Allan, 2017. "Co-benefits of integrating climate change adaptation and mitigation in the Canadian energy sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 214-221.
    6. Azam Lashkari & Amin Alizadeh & Ehsan Rezaei & Mohammad Bannayan, 2012. "Mitigation of climate change impacts on maize productivity in northeast of Iran: a simulation study," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 1-16, January.
    7. Thomas D. Pol & Ekko C. Ierland & Silke Gabbert, 2017. "Economic analysis of adaptive strategies for flood risk management under climate change," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 267-285, February.
    8. Dellink, Rob & Finus, Michael, 2012. "Uncertainty and climate treaties: Does ignorance pay?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 565-584.
    9. Gaiser, Thomas & Judex, Michael & Hiepe, Claudia & Kuhn, Arnim, 2010. "Regional simulation of maize production in tropical savanna fallow systems as affected by fallow availability," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(9), pages 656-665, November.
    10. Liu, Junguo & Williams, Jimmy R. & Zehnder, Alexander J.B. & Yang, Hong, 2007. "GEPIC - modelling wheat yield and crop water productivity with high resolution on a global scale," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 478-493, May.
    11. Carraro, Carlo & Sgobbi, Alessandra & Bosetti, Valentina & Tavoni, Massimo, 2008. "Delayed Action and Uncertain Targets. How Much Will Climate Policy Cost?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6973, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Clemens Heuson & Wolfgang Peters & Reimund Schwarze & Anna-Katharina Topp, 2015. "Investment and Adaptation as Commitment Devices in Climate Politics," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 62(4), pages 769-790, December.
    13. Dobes Leo & Jotzo Frank & Stern David I., 2014. "The Economics of Global Climate Change: A Historical Literature Review," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 65(3), pages 281-320, December.
    14. Thayalakumaran, T. & Roberts, A. & Beverly, C. & Vigiak, O. & Norng, S. & Stott, K., 2016. "Assessing nitrogen fluxes from dairy farms using a modelling approach: A case study in the Moe River catchment, Victoria, Australia," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 37-51.
    15. Roberts, Anna M. & Pannell, David J. & Doole, Graeme & Vigiak, Olga, 2012. "Agricultural land management strategies to reduce phosphorus loads in the Gippsland Lakes, Australia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 11-22.
    16. Dono, Gabriele & Cortignani, Raffaele & Giraldo, Luca & Pasqui, Massimiliano & Roggero, Pier Pao, 2014. "Income Impacts of Climate Change: Irrigated Farming in the Mediterranean and Expected Changes in Probability of Favorable and Adverse Weather Conditions," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 63(3).
    17. Farnaz Pourzand & Ilan Noy & Yigit Saglam, 2019. "Droughts and farms' financial performance in New Zealand: a micro farm-level study," CESifo Working Paper Series 7633, CESifo.
    18. Leenhardt, D. & Trouvat, J. -L. & Gonzales, G. & Perarnaud, V. & Prats, S. & Bergez, J. -E., 2004. "Estimating irrigation demand for water management on a regional scale: I. ADEAUMIS, a simulation platform based on bio-decisional modelling and spatial information," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 207-232, August.
    19. Claudia Schwirplies, 2015. "Adaptation vs. climate protection: Responses to climate change and policy preferences of individuals in China, Germany, and the USA," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201502, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    20. repec:old:wpaper:332 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Tony Prato, 2008. "Accounting for risk and uncertainty in determining preferred strategies for adapting to future climate change," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 47-60, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:eaa120:109317. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eaaeeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.