Politico-administrative scenario evaluation through quantitative network analysis: Using Measure 121 (modernization of agricultural holdings) of Axis 1 as an illustration

In Greece, there is a fostered policy for the modernization of agricultural holdings. This aims in order at improving productivity and environmental performance within a highly competitive international environment. The main research questions are to find what structural changes are desirable or possible to appear in the politico-administrative hierarchy from the 3rd to the 4th Programming Period. Issues of power centralization, information management, dogmatism and conflict are examined. The main method applied for this purpose is the Quantitative Network Analysis. Primary data were collected with standardized questionnaires. State officials have been interviewed. Three scenarios are extracted: a) the real situation of the 3rd PP, b) the desirable situation of the 4th PP, and the probable situation of the 4th PP. Informal hierarchies are measured and visualized. The operationalization of the power dimensions and the other types of links is of crucial importance for the validity and reliability of the results. The results can be useful for policy consulting, if one compares the “probable” and “desirable” scenarios of the 4th PP with the past situation of 3rd PP and particular suggestions can be made. Greece is characterized by a top-down approach of rural development. The process of design and delivery is strongly centralized, and this leads to inflexibility. The bureaucratic procedures and the requirement of too many and possibly unnecessary documents are usual obstacles. The participants present ambitious desires but they also are realists rather than over-optimists concerning the simplicity of the procedures. They believe that the experience of the past can become a lesson for a realistic and not over-optimistic improvement.