Possible Future Scenarios For Sicilian Cereal Cropping In The Light Of Current Trends In Agricultural Policy Of The European Union

This paper sets out the results of a research project carried out by the University of Palermo and financed by the Sicilian Region, which aims to establish the impact of the Fischler Reform on Sicilian agriculture, and to project future scenarios that take into account some of the changes that the production process may undergo in the Region, following both the application of the Reform itself (now in force) and the eventual application of indications contained in the Health check. The impacts of the Fischler Reform, and especially the application of the Single Payment scheme to companies, were examined in cereal cropping companies, especially considering the significant amount of durum wheat cultivation in vast areas of the Region’s hilly and its strategic importance for many areas where there is a risk of farming being abandoned, with grave consequences for the territory and its farmland, for employment and for the encouragement of food and processing industries. The chosen means for assessing the effects of the reform was that of direct interviews at a statistically representative sample made up of 400 agricultural companies, determining possible earnings within the current situation, but also in the eventuality of some of the indications in the Health check being applied. The results indicate that Community aid plays a crucial role in the companies looked at, allowing them to remain on the market. Indeed, the elimination of the aid planned within the framework of the Common Agricultural Policy in the hypothetical scenarios showed a negative impact on earnings for the companies and could cause their exclusion from the market.