Future-proofing with advanced and emerging technologies and tools

Ongoing contributions of agriculture to human health and well-being face major risks. Extreme poverty per se and ineffective policies for development, trade and regulations are the largest risk multipliers, with abiotic and biotic stresses being the major risk drivers. Prevention, effective response, and innovation are the key risk mitigation factors. Tools and technology for 1) monitoring, modelling and predicting risk emergence, 2) deploying, tracking and optimising existing solutions, and 3) on-going innovations for better tools and solutions, are keys to future-proofing our agricultural system. I propose focusing on overall water-use efficiency as the normalising basis for quantitative tracking and prioritisation of progress and setbacks. Yeildgap.org is an excellent resource for tracking realised harvest vs water-limited potential harvest. Poor soil fertility in developing countries and pests/pathogens everywhere are the major limitations on agriculture using existing best practices. Soil fertility can be readily solved; the future will be limited primarily by pests and pathogens and increasing abiotic stresses. Recent case studies from Africa illustrate the situation. Maize lethal necrosis virus erupted suddenly in East Africa and exposed a vulnerability in the local seed system which, once understood, was then remedied. Cassava mosaic disease is an on-going and spreading problem that threatens much of Africa’s cassava crop. Despite excellent progress in tracking, modelling and development of solutions, it remains a major threat, due to slow progress in deployment of new resistant varieties and cooperation within and across country borders to contain the outbreak. New strains of wheat rust have emerged in eastern Africa and spread around most of the world. Deployment of single resistance genes has led to progressive loss of their effectiveness, complicating efforts to build a more durable resistance package. Molecular efforts to splice together multi-gene packages, and using synthetic biology to create new resistance genes not found in germplasm collections, promise a more robust and durable solution.