Seedling choices of perennial crops: The role of subjective belief of yield and risk behaviours

Seedling variety choice is one of the most important steps for perennial crop farmers as it is a key component of farm profitability over the long-term. Certified seedling varieties have become more common in recent years in developing country areas as a response to concerns about low-quality seedling and an increasing amount of climate variability for which new certified varieties may provide increased resilience. However, the adoption rate of certified seedling varieties in developing countries is generally low. Given the long-lived nature of such investments and the high level of uncertainty regarding both the climate to which they will be exposed as mature trees and the quality of the seedling there are clear linkages to farmers’ subjective belief regarding yields differential between certified and uncertified seedling, their time and risk preferences. We consider these aspects using a recently developed survey-based toll for measuring risk and time preferences and link those to stated preferences and observations on the adoption of certified seedlings. Results show that there are differences in subjective belief of yield which strongly associated with the non-adopter farmers’ intention to adopt. Time preferences play a role in adopter farmers’ intention, but risk preferences do not significantly related to adoption behaviours.