Reoptimization or Bias? Factors Affecting Changes in Production Decisions of Farmers

The decisions of managers aim to maximize profit. In agriculture, depending on the crop, production plans can have a horizon between a few months and several years. However, it is not always the case that managers follow their production plans once they have been established. This is because the information set available to the manager may change over time. The new information may be significant enough as to reconsider the original plan. The reassessment of the production plan depends mainly on the effect that new information has on expected profit, risk perceptions, and risk attitudes. Accordingly, this paper analyzes the variables that contribute to the manager’s decision to update his or her production plan. In particular, we evaluate the effects of managers’ behavioral attributes, farm financial indicators, and production characteristics, on the decision to revise their initial production plans. Our findings provide new insights into the decision-making process of farm and ranch managers, including their expected behavior under different market conditions as well as information processing methods.