IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aaea07/9803.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Potential Economic Impact of Avian Flu Pandemic on Taiwan

Author

Listed:
  • Chang, Ching-Cheng
  • Lee, Duu-Hwa
  • Lin, Hsin-Chun
  • Hsu, Shih-Shun

Abstract

This study analyzes the potential consequences of an outbreak of avian influenza (H5N1) on Taiwan¡¦s macro economy and individual industries. Both the Input-Output (IO) Analysis Model and Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model are used to simulate the possible damage brought by lowering domestic consumption, export, and labor supply. The simulation results indicates that if the disease is confined within the poultry sector, then the impact on real GDP is around -0.1%~-0.4%. Once it becomes a human-to-human pandemic, the IO analysis suggests that the potential impacts on real GDP would be as much as -4.2%~-5.9% while labor demand would decrease 4.9%~6.4%. In the CGE analysis, which allows for resource mobility and substitutions through price adjustments, the real GDP and labor demand would contract 2.0%~2.4% and 2.2%~2.4%, respectively, and bringing down consumer prices by 3%. As for the individual sector, the outbreak will not only damage the poultry sector and its upstream and downstream industries, but also affect the service sectors including wholesale, retail, trade, air transportation, restaurants, as well as healthcare services. These results can be used to support public investment in animal disease control measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Chang, Ching-Cheng & Lee, Duu-Hwa & Lin, Hsin-Chun & Hsu, Shih-Shun, 2007. "The Potential Economic Impact of Avian Flu Pandemic on Taiwan," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon 9803, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea07:9803
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.9803
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/9803/files/sp07ch03.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.9803?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sungjo Hong & Seok-Hwan Choi, 2021. "The Urban Characteristics of High Economic Resilient Neighborhoods during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case of Suwon, South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-39, April.
    2. Rahmiye Figen Ceylan & Burhan Ozkan & Esra Mulazimogullari, 2020. "Historical evidence for economic effects of COVID-19," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 21(6), pages 817-823, August.
    3. Betarelli Junior, Admir Antonio & Faria, Weslem Rodrigues & Proque, Andressa Lemes & Perobelli, Fernando Salgueiro & de Almeida Vale, Vinicius, 2021. "COVID-19, public agglomerations and economic effects: Assessing the recovery time of passenger transport services in Brazil," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 254-272.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Livestock Production/Industries;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea07:9803. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.