IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aaea02/19897.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Is The "Standard Real Options Approach" Appropriate For Investment Decisions In Hog Production?

Author

Listed:
  • Balmann, Alfons
  • Musshoff, Oliver

Abstract

Applications of the real options approach hardly consider investment returns to be the result of competitive markets such as markets for agricultural products. The reason is probably that Dixit and Pindyck (1994, ch. 8) show in their very popular book "Investment under Uncertainty" that the investment triggers of firms in competitive markets are equal to those of firms with exclusive options. In this study, however, it is shown that this result is restricted to markets in which assets have infinite lifetime. If assets are subject to depreciation and subsequent reinvestment opportuni-ties, competition leads to significantly lower investment triggers. The reason is that depreciation of replaceable assets allows to compensate the potential decline in returns after negative demand shocks because of the non-replacement of depreciated assets. Accordingly, applications of the real options approach to investments in e.g. pig production should consider this effect. The results are obtained by an agent-based simulation approach in which a number of competing firms derive their investment triggers by a genetic algorithm. Since this method allows to understand the re-sulting price dynamics, an alternative method is presented that allows to simulate the identified price dynamics directly and which also can be used to determine investment triggers for specific conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Balmann, Alfons & Musshoff, Oliver, 2002. "Is The "Standard Real Options Approach" Appropriate For Investment Decisions In Hog Production?," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19897, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea02:19897
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.19897
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/19897/files/sp02ba05.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.19897?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Edmund Chattoe-Brown, 1998. "Just How (Un)realistic Are Evolutionary Algorithms As Representations of Social Processes?," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 1(3), pages 1-2.
    2. Michael Kopel & Herbert Dawid, 1998. "On economic applications of the genetic algorithm: a model of the cobweb type," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 297-315.
    3. Pindyck, Robert S, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-1148, September.
    4. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-638, June.
    5. Boyle, Phelim P., 1977. "Options: A Monte Carlo approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 323-338, May.
    6. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    7. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    8. Arifovic, Jasmina, 1994. "Genetic algorithm learning and the cobweb model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 3-28, January.
    9. Henry, Claude, 1974. "Investment Decisions Under Uncertainty: The "Irreversibility Effect."," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(6), pages 1006-1012, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sameh Hachicha & Leila Kaaniche & Fathi Abid, 2011. "Sequential investment and delay: an agribusiness firm case study," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 71(2), pages 240-258, August.
    2. Engel, Phoebe D. & Hyde, Jeffrey, 2003. "A Real Options Analysis of Automatic Milking Systems," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 32(2), pages 1-13, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Balmann, Alfons & Musshoff, Oliver, 2002. "Real Options and Competition: The Impact of Depreciation and Reinvestment," 2002 International Congress, August 28-31, 2002, Zaragoza, Spain 24934, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Luis H. R. Alvarez & Erkki Koskela, 2002. "Irreversible Investment under Interest Rate Variability: New Results," CESifo Working Paper Series 640, CESifo.
    3. Balmann, Alfons & Kataria, Karin & Musshoff, Oliver, 2013. "Investment reluctance in supply chains: An agent-based real options approach," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 3(2A), pages 1-10.
    4. El-Shazly Alaa, 2004. "Investment Under Uncertainty in Egypt: A Real-Options Approach," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 2(2), pages 51-60, August.
    5. Gürtler, Marc & Sieg, Gernot, 2006. "Crunch time: The optimal policy to avoid the "Announcement Effect" when terminating a subsidy," Working Papers FW24V2, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Institute of Finance.
    6. Tsekrekos, Andrianos E., 2010. "The effect of mean reversion on entry and exit decisions under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 725-742, April.
    7. Belke, Ansgar & Göcke, Matthias, 2019. "Interest rate hysteresis in macroeconomic investment under uncertainty," Ruhr Economic Papers 801, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    8. Décamps, Jean-Paul & Mariotti, Thomas & Villeneuve, Stéphane, 2000. "Investment Timing under Incomplete Information," IDEI Working Papers 115, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse, revised Apr 2004.
    9. Moon, Yongma & Baran, Mesut, 2018. "Economic analysis of a residential PV system from the timing perspective: A real option model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 783-795.
    10. Jean-Paul Décamps & Thomas Mariotti & Stéphane Villeneuve, 2006. "Irreversible investment in alternative projects," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 28(2), pages 425-448, June.
    11. Tarun Sabarwal, 2005. "The non-neutrality of debt in investment timing: a new NPV rule," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(4), pages 433-445, October.
    12. Francisco Ruiz‐Aliseda & Jianjun Wu, 2012. "Irreversible Investment in Stochastically Cyclical Markets," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 801-847, September.
    13. Lander, Diane M. & Pinches, George E., 1998. "Challenges to the Practical Implementation of Modeling and Valuing Real Options," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(3, Part 2), pages 537-567.
    14. Rainer Niemann & Caren Sureth, 2002. "Taxation under Uncertainty – Problems of Dynamic Programming and Contingent Claims Analysis in Real Option Theory," CESifo Working Paper Series 709, CESifo.
    15. Karine Fiore, 2004. "Irréversibilité Mixte et Modularité : une application à l’investissement électronucléaire," CAE Working Papers 17, Aix-Marseille Université, CERGAM.
    16. Gürtler Marc & Sieg Gernot, 2010. "Crunch Time: A Policy to Avoid the ‘Announcement Effect’ when Terminating a Subsidy," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 25-36, February.
    17. Carlos Andrés Zapata Quimbayo, 2020. "OPCIONES REALES Una guía teórico-práctica para la valoración de inversiones bajo incertidumbre mediante modelos en tiempo discreto y simulación de Monte Carlo," Books, Universidad Externado de Colombia, Facultad de Finanzas, Gobierno y Relaciones Internacionales, number 138.
    18. Stefanie Engel & Charles Palmer & Luca Taschini & Simon Urech, 2012. "Cost-effective payments for reducing emissions from deforestation under uncertainty," GRI Working Papers 72, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    19. Felipe Isaza Cuervo & Sergio Botero Boterob, 2014. "Aplicación de las opciones reales en la toma de decisiones en los mercados de electricidad," Estudios Gerenciales, Universidad Icesi, November.
    20. Jan Vlachý, 2009. "Solving the Capacity Optimization Problem under Demand Uncertainty," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 12(34), pages 97-116, (4).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Livestock Production/Industries;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea02:19897. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.