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The impact of Covid-19 and Russia-Ukraine war on food prices in fragile countries: misfortunes never come singly

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Listed:
  • Samba Diop

    (Alioune Diop University, Bambey, Senegal)

  • Simplice A. Asongu

    (Yaoundé, Cameroon)

Abstract

The objective of the paper is to evaluate whether there is a change in the level or trend of food prices in fragile countries following the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. The empirical evidence is based on Interrupted Time Series Analysis. The following findings are established. Firstly, an immediate and sustained positive effect is noted, indicating that for each month that passes after the Covid-19 and Russia-Ukraine war, food prices increase in most of the fragile countries. Secondly, if the Covid-19 and the Russia-Ukraine war had not happened, the price level and its trend would have been at a significantly lower level in fragile countries. Thirdly, the Russia-Ukraine war intervention period slope is significantly and considerably higher than that of the Covid-19 indicating that the Russia-Ukraine war has increased food prices in fragile countries more proportionately than the Covid-19 pandemic did.

Suggested Citation

  • Samba Diop & Simplice A. Asongu, 2022. "The impact of Covid-19 and Russia-Ukraine war on food prices in fragile countries: misfortunes never come singly," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 22/055, African Governance and Development Institute..
    • Handle: RePEc:agd:wpaper:22/055
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Samba Diop & Simplice A. Asongu, 2023. "The Covid-19 Pandemic and the New Poor in Africa: The Straw That Broke the Camel’s Back," Forum for Social Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(2), pages 143-154, April.
    2. Amankwah-Amoah, Joseph, 2020. "Note: Mayday, Mayday, Mayday! Responding to environmental shocks: Insights on global airlines’ responses to COVID-19," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    3. Samba Diop & Simplice A. Asongu, 2020. "The Covid-19 Pandemic and the New Poor in Africa: the Straw that Broke the Camel’s Back," Working Papers 20/038, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    4. Festus A. Odeyemi & Ibrahim A. Adekunle & Olakitan W. Ogunbanjo & Jamiu B. Folorunso & Thompson Akinbolaji & Idowu B. Olawoye, 2020. "Gauging the Laboratory Responses to Coronavirus Disease (Covid-19) in Africa," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 20/052, African Governance and Development Institute..
    5. Ozili, Peterson K, 2020. "COVID-19 in Africa: socioeconomic impact, policy response and opportunities," MPRA Paper 99617, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Ariel Linden, 2015. "Conducting interrupted time-series analysis for single- and multiple-group comparisons," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 15(2), pages 480-500, June.
    7. John E. Ataguba, 2020. "COVID-19 Pandemic, a War to be Won: Understanding its Economic Implications for Africa," Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 325-328, June.
    8. Ariel Linden, 2017. "A comprehensive set of postestimation measures to enrich interrupted time-series analysis," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 17(1), pages 73-88, March.
    9. Festus A. Odeyemi & Ibrahim A. Adekunle & Olakitan W. Ogunbanjo & Jamiu B. Folorunso & Thompson Akinbolaji & Idowu B. Olawoye, 2020. "Gauging the Laboratory Responses to Coronavirus Disease (Covid-19) in Africa," Research Africa Network Working Papers 20/052, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    10. Festus A. Odeyemi & Ibrahim A. Adekunle & Olakitan W. Ogunbanjo & Jamiu B. Folorunso & Thompson Akinbolaji & Idowu B. Olawoye, 2020. "Gauging the Laboratory Responses to Coronavirus Disease (Covid-19) in Africa," Working Papers 20/052, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19; Russia-Ukraine war; food prices; fragile countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F52 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - National Security; Economic Nationalism
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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