Risk and Uncertainty Analysis of Commercial Real Estate Developments: A Comparison of Traditional and Contemporary Approaches

The study assessed the degree to which the traditional NPV captured the risk and uncertainty inherent in real estate development projects in Lagos, Nigeria, using case studies. This was with a view to enhancing real estate investment decision making in developing countries of Africa. Two commercial real estate developments were selected as case studies for the study. Probabilistic risk analysis models (risk adjusted discount rate and certainty equivalent models) were used to assess the risk inherent in the development projects while real option analysis (Samuelson Mckean Model) was used to test the effect of flexibility on the investments (uncertainty analysis). The methodology involved first carrying out an appraisal of the case studies using the traditional NPV. Thereafter, the appraisal outcomes of the NPV analysis were compared to outcomes using contemporary models (risk and uncertainty analysis). The findings of the study showed that the contemporary models - which were not much in use in the study area - provided much more profound investment advice for clients and a much more robust basis for client decision making than the traditional NPV model. The study concluded that contemporary models deserve to be in much more use in the developing economies of Africa.