The measurement and reporting of Risk in Property Valuation and Investment Analysis: The Challenges facing Valuers in Emerging Property Markets

It is a basic assumption in property valuation and investment analysis that investors primarily seek to maximize wealth by selecting investments on the basis of their risk and return characteristics; which suggests that the decision making process is more or less a risk/return tradeoff. As a result, risk, like return, need be analyzed and quantified to make the required tradeoff meaningful and transparent. This study includes an empirical investigation of how Nigerian valuers presently account for risk and convey risk information to clients. In addition, the study explores how risk can best be measured and reported in a helpful and transparent manner given the peculiar characteristics of an emerging property market like Nigeria. The study employed only secondary data made up mainly of valuation and investment analysis reports prepared by Nigerian valuers. Of the several valuation reports examined, only a negligible few refers to or formally addresses investment risk profiles with regards to the inputs or the resultant valuations. While the valuers often employ one or more of the conventional risk measurement model such as the payback period and sensitivity analysis in their investment analysis reports, the limited risk implications implicit in the results could not be communicated in a manner that permits returns to be evaluated against associated risks transparently. The required paradigm shift demands that valuers begin to look at the decision variables more in terms of their distributions rather than as single-point estimates; and that they develop the skill for assigning probabilities to their various outcomes.