IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/aez/wpaper/2020-03.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Cash Flow at Risk Assessment for the Banking Sector of Georgia

Author

Listed:
  • Tamar Mdivnishvili

    (Macroeconomic Research Division, National Bank of Georgia)

  • Shalva Mkhatrishvili

    (Macroeconomic Research Division, National Bank of Georgia)

  • Davit Tutberidze

    (Macroeconomic Research Division, National Bank of Georgia)

Abstract

The aim of our study is to estimate the distribution of the profitability of the Georgian banking sector, in order to determine liquidity risk, for which we use Cash Flow at Risk (CFaR). In our estimation, we took into account possible nonlinear impact of monetary policy on banks' profit, which allows us also to estimate the neutral interest rate. According to our results, the relationship between bank profits on the one hand and short- and long-term interest rates on another is nonlinear indeed. In addition to median estimates, we also use quantile regression, which allows us to estimate tail risks. According to the results in a "normal" (median) situation, when interest rates are below neutral rate, decreasing policy rate reduces banks' profits, while if banks suffer from low liquidity (on a lower percentile), reduction of policy rate increases banks' profits. According to the quantile regression output, the relationship between bank profitability and yield curve is asymmetric. The results also show the dependence of bank liquidity risk on other macro variables. Estimates are made for the entire banking sector as well as for the two largest banks in Georgia.

Suggested Citation

  • Tamar Mdivnishvili & Shalva Mkhatrishvili & Davit Tutberidze, 2020. "Cash Flow at Risk Assessment for the Banking Sector of Georgia," NBG Working Papers 03/2020, National Bank of Georgia.
    • Handle: RePEc:aez:wpaper:2020-03
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://nbg.gov.ge/fm/wp/nbg-wp-2020-03.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Leonardo Gambacorta, 2009. "Monetary policy and the risk-taking channel," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller & Balázs Égert & Oliver Röhn, 2010. "Counter-cyclical Economic Policy," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 760, OECD Publishing.
    2. Olivier Bruno & Melchisedek Joslem Ngambou Djatche, 2020. "Monetary and Prudential Policy Coordination: impact on Bank's Risk-Taking," GREDEG Working Papers 2020-24, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France, revised Mar 2021.
    3. Carlos González-Aguado, 2011. "Interest Rates and Credit Risk," CNMV Working Papers CNMV Working Papers no. 4, CNMV- Spanish Securities Markets Commission - Research and Statistics Department.
    4. Richhild Moessner, 2014. "Effects of explicit FOMC policy-rate guidance on equities and risk measures," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(18), pages 2139-2153, June.
    5. Tomasz Chmielewski & Tomasz Lyziak & Ewa Stanislawska, 2020. "Risk-Taking Channel and Its Non-Linearities: The Case of an Emerging Market Economy," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 70(1), pages 2-25, February.
    6. Fredric Mishkin, 2011. "How Should Central Banks Respond to Asset-Price Bubbles? The 'Lean' versus 'Clean' Debate After the GFC," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 59-70, June.
    7. Hau, Harald & Lai, Sandy, 2016. "Asset allocation and monetary policy: Evidence from the eurozone," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 309-329.
    8. Malovaná, Simona & Frait, Jan, 2017. "Monetary policy and macroprudential policy: Rivals or teammates?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1-16.
    9. Ngambou Djatche, Melchisédek Joslem, 2019. "Re-exploring the nexus between monetary policy and banks' risk-taking," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 294-307.
    10. Scheffknecht, Lukas & Geiger, Felix, 2011. "A behavioral macroeconomic model with endogenous boom-bust cycles and leverage dynamcis," FZID Discussion Papers 37-2011, University of Hohenheim, Center for Research on Innovation and Services (FZID).
    11. Georgios P. Kouretas & Chris Tsoumas, 2013. "Bank Risk-Taking in CEE Countries," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 5(2), pages 103-123, June.
    12. Daniel Oda, 2013. "Introducing Liquidity Risk in the Contingent-Claim Analysis for the Banks," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 681, Central Bank of Chile.
    13. Kabundi, Alain & De Simone, Francisco Nadal, 2020. "Monetary policy and systemic risk-taking in the euro area banking sector," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 736-758.
    14. Meixing Dai & Fanny Loux, 2017. "Les taux d’intérêt nominaux négatifs sont-ils efficaces pour relancer la croissance des crédits et de l’économie ?," Bulletin de l'Observatoire des politiques économiques en Europe, Observatoire des Politiques Économiques en Europe (OPEE), vol. 36(1), pages 9-20, June.
    15. Li, Yang, 2017. "Interest rates and financial fragility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 195-205.
    16. Salim Dehmej & Leonardo Gambacorta, 2019. "Macroprudential Policy in a Monetary Union," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(2), pages 195-212, June.
    17. Geršl, Adam & Jakubík, Petr & Kowalczyk, Dorota & Ongena, Steven & Peydró, José-Luis, 2015. "Monetary conditions and banks’ behaviour in the Czech Republic," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 26(3), pages 407-445.
    18. Melchisedek Joslem Ngambou Djatche, 2022. "Monetary policy, prudential policy and bank's risk‐taking: A literature review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 1559-1590, December.
    19. Altavilla, Carlo & Boucinha, Miguel & Pagano, Marco & Polo, Andrea, 2023. "Climate Risk, Bank Lending and Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 18541, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. David Martinez-Miera & Rafael Repullo, 2019. "Monetary Policy, Macroprudential Policy, and Financial Stability," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 809-832, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Quantile regression; Forecasting; Monetary policy; Bank profitability; CFaR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aez:wpaper:2020-03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Giorgi Tsutskiridze (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ngbgvge.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.