Precolonial Centralization, Koranic Education and School Participation in Nigeria

Several studies have documented the persistence of economic development outcomes across space and over a long period of time. Other studies have argued that there has been a reversal of fortune over time and space. Since different areas of current Nigeria were once under the rule of states with different degrees of political centralization and later investment in Koranic education, this study sought to explore whether areas or districts under more centralized political system are more likely to participate in large scale school expansion programmes such as the 1976 Universal Primary Education (UPE) and 1999 Universal Basic Education (UBE). To check for evidence of reversal of fortune, we determine whether degree of state centralization on school participation was more or less in areas that have large investments in Koranic education. The important motivation for this study was the observation that participation in the tuition-free large-scale school expansion programmes implemented nationwide have not closed the disparity in school participation across the various regions of Nigeria. Even more surprising is that regions, such as the North-West and North-East, which fell under pre-colonial states with complex political arrangements have fallen behind in the education race relative the South-East, often regarded as a stateless society, and to some extent the South-South region which had a less complex political structure. This is contrary to the findings of several studies which show a positive relationship between this historical measure of state centralization and several indices of contemporary development outcomes. To explain this special case, we hypothesized that regions that had intensive and extensive contacts with Islamic culture and by extension Koranic education before the onset of Christian missionaries were unlikely to reap the full benefits of pre-colonial centralization. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) results showed that while the index of state centralization has a positive and significant impact on enrolment in UPE and UBE programmes, the effect is negative and statistically significant for those with heavy investment in Koranic education (measured by district fraction of 1914-1946 cohorts with Koranic education). The results are robust to an adding extensive range of explanatory variables and a range of other specification tests. While the structure of the economy at the onset of Islamic activities in Nigeria may have made investment in Koranic education worthwhile, the contemporary world does not require Koranic education to make either regional or national advancement possible. Thus, there is a clear case of mismatch between the demands of modern economic life and the skills possessed by a large-section of it. Thus, well thought out policies are required to address this mismatch and accelerate inclusive economic development