Three Essays On The Effects Of Capital Flows On Economic Cycles In The Cemac Zone

The objective of this thesis is to analyze the effects of capital flows on the economic cycles of the countries of the CEMAC zone. We opted for our thesis for an econometric approach based on panel data made up of all CEMAC countries. Our study period extends from 1985 to 2019. In the first chapter, we analyze the effect of remittances on fluctuations in economic activity in CEMAC countries. The methodological approach used is the PVAR. The results of this first chapter show that remittances directly influence fluctuations in the economic activity of CEMAC countries, on the one hand. And on the other hand, remittances play a stabilizing role insofar as they are counter-cyclical in nature with fluctuations in production per capita; which suggests, according to the literature, an altruistic motivation. The study also indicates that remittances, although interacting with other variables, can play a key role in mitigating the effects of negative shocks on production. Moreover, the relationship is unidirectional from remittances to fluctuations in economic activity. In the second chapter, we examine the effects of official development assistance on the economic cycles of CEMAC countries. This objective was achieved by using the ARDL method to capture the relationship between APD and cycle in the long term. The results reveal that in the short term, official development assistance, in addition to being negative, has no significant effects on the output gap of CEMAC countries. On the other hand, ODA, in addition to having a positive and statistically significant long-term influence on the output gap, is procyclical. This significance of ODA on the output gap is not negligible. Finally in the third chapter, we identify the link between FDI and the synchronization of economic cycles in the CEMAC zone. The methodology used to achieve this objective is based on Parks Generalized Feasible Least Squares (1967). The results show, on the one hand, that FDI has a positive effect on the synchronization of the economic cycles of the countries of the CEMAC zone; and on the other hand that the exuberance of economic cycles through short-term flows, international value chains resulting from foreign direct investment and specialization induced by risk sharing are the channels through which direct investment foreigners affect the synchronization of the economic cycles of the CEMAC countries. Keywords: Remittances, official development assistance, foreign direct investment, economic cycles, CEMAC.