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Fallas de expectativas y heurísticas en fluctuaciones: un análisis empírico

Author

Listed:
  • Federico Favata
  • Pablo Javier Mira

Abstract

Se capturan algunas propiedades empíricas de la relación entre consumo e ingreso en diferentes etapas del ciclo para un panel global y se investiga sus conexiones con las fallas de expectativas y/o con el uso de heurísticas. Se halla que las propensiones a consumir de las tasas de crecimiento (PMC): (i) muestran un valor claramente positivo y significativo cualquiera sea el período considerado, en especial en países en desarrollo; (ii) aumenta en las expansiones del ingreso de 2 o 3 períodos consecutivos, en especial en países desarrollados; y (iii) se mantienen aproximadamente constantes dentro y fuera de la tendencia en los países menos ricos. Esta evidencia es consistente con (a) el rechazo a la teoría tradicional; (b) entusiasmos exagerados en momentos de expansión en los países más ricos; y (c) el uso general de heurísticas en los países de menor ingreso.

Suggested Citation

  • Federico Favata & Pablo Javier Mira, 2022. "Fallas de expectativas y heurísticas en fluctuaciones: un análisis empírico," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4561, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    • Handle: RePEc:aep:anales:4561
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E70 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General

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