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Google Correlate y Google Trends como herramientas para realizar un nowcast de las ventas minoristas

Author

Listed:
  • María Florencia Camusso
  • Ramiro Emmanuel Jorge

Abstract

El trabajo internaliza información proveniente de las herramientas Google Trends y Google Correlate, con el objetivo de realizar un nowcast de las ventas de supermercados de la Provincia de Santa Fe; indicador que se publica con algunos meses de rezago. En primer lugar se identifican un conjunto de variables proxies con alto poder predictivo y luego se plantea un método de agregación para incorporar los patrones de búsqueda a la serie target. Las estimaciones obtenidas con el modelo, son contrastadas con datos reales de la serie target (ex post) y con los forecasts que arroja el X13-ARIMA-SEATS. Los resultados indican que las herramientas y el procedimiento adoptado permiten realizar una estimación consistente y ganar oportunidad respecto a las publicaciones oficiales.

Suggested Citation

  • María Florencia Camusso & Ramiro Emmanuel Jorge, 2019. "Google Correlate y Google Trends como herramientas para realizar un nowcast de las ventas minoristas," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4127, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    • Handle: RePEc:aep:anales:4127
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    File URL: https://aaep.org.ar/works/works2019/camusso_jorge.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cycles; nowcast; big data; Google tools Argentino;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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