IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/aee/wpaper/1509.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Detection of Implicit Fluctuation Bands in The European Union Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Simón Sosvilla-Rivero

    (Department of Quantitative Economics, Universidad Complutense de Madrid)

  • María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera

    (Department of Quantitative Economics, Universidad Complutense de Madrid)

Abstract

This paper attempts to identify implicit exchange rate regimes for currencies of European Union member states vis-à-vis the euro. To that end, we apply three sequential procedures that consider the dynamics of exchange rates to data covering the period from 1999:01 to 2012:12 for twelve European countries. Our results indicate the presence of ± 2% and ± 1% implicit fluctuation bands in high percentages of the sample period even reach 100% in countries such as Bulgaria, Cyprus and Slovenia, among others. This paper provides new empirical evidence that strengthens the hypothesis of that the implemented policies differ from those announced by the monetary authorities, identifying the existence of de facto fixed monetary systems along large number of sub-periods for different currencies. It seems that the countries under study try to capture the benefits of their participation in the ERM-II moderating somewhat the potential problems arising from formal participation in the ERM-II.

Suggested Citation

  • Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera, 2015. "Detection of Implicit Fluctuation Bands in The European Union Countries," Working Papers 15-09, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
    • Handle: RePEc:aee:wpaper:1509
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.aeefi.com/RePEc/pdf/defi15-09.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Khan, Muhammad & Kebewar, mazen & Nenovsky, Nikolay, 2013. "Inflation Uncertainty, Output Growth Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance: Comparing Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes in Eastern Europe," MPRA Paper 45523, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    3. Jeffry Frieden & David Leblang & Neven Valev, 2010. "The political economy of exchange rate regimes in transition economies," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 1-25, March.
    4. Garber, Peter M. & Svensson, Lars E.O., 1995. "The operation and collapse of fixed exchange rate regimes," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 36, pages 1865-1911, Elsevier.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    6. Rudi Dornbusch, 2001. "Fewer Monies, Better Monies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 238-242, May.
    7. Francisco Ledesma-Rodriguez & Manuel Navarro-Ibanez & Jorge Perez-Rodriguez & Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, 2000. "On the Credibility of the Irish Pound in the EMS," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 31(2), pages 151-172.
    8. Francisco Ledesma-Rodriguez & Manuel Navarro-Ibanez & Jorge Perez-Rodriguez & Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, 2005. "Assessing the credibility of a target zone: evidence from the EMS," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(19), pages 2265-2287.
    9. Coudert, Virginie & Dubert, Marc, 2005. "Does exchange rate regime explain differences in economic results for Asian countries?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 874-895, October.
    10. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries or At All Times," NBER Working Papers 7338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Paul De Grauwe & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Macroeconomic Stability in Central and Eastern Europe," International Finance 0404011, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2005. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1603-1635, August.
    13. J. Scott Davis & Ippei Fujiwara, 2015. "Pegging the exchange rate to gain monetary policy credibility," Globalization Institute Working Papers 224, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    14. Herrendorf, Berthold, 1999. "Transparency, reputation, and credibility under floating and pegged exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 31-50, October.
    15. Andrew K. Rose & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "National Money as a Barrier to International Trade: The Real Case for Currency Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 386-390, May.
    16. Jay C. Shambaugh, 2004. "The Effect of Fixed Exchange Rates on Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 301-352.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alan M. Taylor & Natalia Chernyshoff & David Jacks, 2005. "Stuck on Gold:Real Exchange Rate Volatility and the Rise and Fall of the Gold Standard, 1870?1939," Working Papers 237, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    2. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126.
    3. Chernyshoff, Natalia & Jacks, David S. & Taylor, Alan M., 2009. "Stuck on gold: Real exchange rate volatility and the rise and fall of the gold standard, 1875-1939," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 195-205, April.
    4. Bogdan Căpraru & Iulian Ihnatov, 2011. "The Effect Of Exchange Rate Arrangements On Transmission Of Interest Rates And Monetary Policy Independence: Evidence From A Group Of New Eu Member Countries "," Analele Stiintifice ale Universitatii "Alexandru Ioan Cuza" din Iasi - Stiinte Economice (1954-2015), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 58, pages 71-81, november.
    5. Alexis Cruz-Rodriguez, 2013. "Choosing and Assessing Exchange Rate Regimes: a Survey of the Literature," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 28(2), pages 37-61, October.
    6. Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "De jure versus de facto Exchange Rate Stabilization in Central and Eastern Europe," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 59(02), pages 171-190, June.
    7. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico & Reggio, Iliana, 2010. "On the endogeneity of exchange rate regimes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 659-677, July.
    8. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2010. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4215-4281, Elsevier.
    9. repec:aly:journl:202049 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Biswajit Mohanty & N.R. Bhanumurthy, 2014. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Inflation: Evidence from India," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 311-332, June.
    11. Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2016. "An empirical assessment of exchange arrangements and inflation performance," MPRA Paper 73005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Claude Bismut & Darine Ghanem, 2009. "This paper investigates empirically the reasons behind the popularity of fixed adjustable pegs in the Middle East North Africa region (MENA). We have used an ordered multinomial random effects probit ," Working Papers 09-10, LAMETA, Universtiy of Montpellier, revised Sep 2009.
    13. Rodriguez, Cesar M., 2016. "Economic and political determinants of exchange rate regimes: The case of Latin America," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 1-26.
    14. Michael Frömmel, 2010. "Volatility Regimes in Central and Eastern European Countries’ Exchange Rates," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(1), pages 2-21, February.
    15. Francisco Ledesma-Rodriguez & Manuel Navarro-Ibanez & Jorge Perez-Rodriguez & Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, 2011. "Implicit bands in the yen/dollar exchange rate," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(10), pages 1241-1255.
    16. Busse, Matthias & Hefeker, Carsten & Koopmann, Georg, 2006. "Between two poles: A dual currency board for Mercosur," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 349-362, December.
    17. António Portugal Duarte & João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte, 2010. "Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Distribution and Volatility under the Portuguese Target Zone," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 57(3), pages 261-282, September.
    18. Francisco Ledesma-Rodríguez & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez & Jorge Pérez-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, "undated". "Regímenes cambiarios de facto y de iure. Una aplicación al tipo de cambio yen/dólar," Working Papers 2004-10, FEDEA.
    19. Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera, 2015. "Detection of implicit fluctuation bands and their credibility in EU candidate countries," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 18-37.
    20. António Portugal Duarte & João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte, 2008. "Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Volatility in a Target Zone: The Portuguese Case," GEMF Working Papers 2008-03, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    21. Tavlas, George & Dellas, Harris & Stockman, Alan C., 2008. "The classification and performance of alternative exchange-rate systems," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 941-963, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange-rate regimes; Implicit fluctuation bands; Exchange rates; De facto and de iure fixed regimes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aee:wpaper:1509. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Luis Miguel del Corral Cuervo (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeefiea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.