IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ady/wpaper/edwrg-07-2022.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Remittances And Economic Growth In South Africa: Applying Ardl Bounds Testing Analysis In The Presence Of Structural Breaks

Author

Listed:
  • Mduduzi Biyase

    (College of Business and Economics, University of Johannesburg)

  • Mathias Manguzvane

    (College of Business and Economics, University of Johannesburg)

  • Thomas Udiman

    (Southwest Forestry University)

Abstract

We take another look at the relationship between remittances and economic growth in South Africa, using recent data and a fairly lengthy time period of approximately 50 years for South Africa running from 1970 to 2019. We use the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to assess the cointegration among remittances, economic growth, including control variables in the presence of structural breaks. We find evidence to suggest that the structural change in economic growth occurred in 2008 during the global financial crisis, while the break point for remittances received emerged in 1997. After taking into consideration the presence of structural breaks, our study confirmed a cointegration relationship between remittances received and economic growth in South Africa. Specifically, the ARDL results present a negative and significant estimates of remittances on economic growth in the short and long-run, consistent with previous studies. All the specification tests confirm the statistical robustness of the ARDL bounds testing method.

Suggested Citation

  • Mduduzi Biyase & Mathias Manguzvane & Thomas Udiman, 2022. "Remittances And Economic Growth In South Africa: Applying Ardl Bounds Testing Analysis In The Presence Of Structural Breaks," Economics Working Papers edwrg-07-2022, College of Business and Economics, University of Johannesburg, South Africa, revised 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:ady:wpaper:edwrg-07-2022
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://edwrg.education/RePEc/ady/wpaper/w7_2022.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2022
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol & Smith, Richard J., 2000. "Structural analysis of vector error correction models with exogenous I(1) variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 293-343, August.
    2. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    3. Biru Paksha PAUL & Anupam DAS, 2011. "The Remittance-GDP Relationship in the Liberalized Regime of Bangladesh: Cointegration and Innovation Accounting," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(9(562)), pages 41-60, September.
    4. Nahed Zghidi & Zouheir Abida, 2014. "Financial Development, Trade Openness and Economic Growth in North African Countries," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 17(53), pages 91-120, September.
    5. Miguel D. Ramirez & Hari Sharma, 2009. "Remittances and Growth in Latin America: A Panel Unit Root and Panel Cointegration Analysis," Estudios Economicos de Desarrollo Internacional, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1).
    6. Abida Zouheir & Imen Mohamed Sghaier, 2014. "Remittances, Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Case of North African Countries," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 17(51), pages 137-170, March.
    7. Sobiech, Izabela, 2019. "Remittances, finance and growth: Does financial development foster the impact of remittances on economic growth?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 44-59.
    8. Catrinescu, Natalia & Leon-Ledesma, Miguel & Piracha, Matloob & Quillin, Bryce, 2009. "Remittances, Institutions, and Economic Growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 81-92, January.
    9. repec:wsr:wpaper:y:2015:i:158 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Temitayo Olumide Olaniyan, 2019. "Interactive Effects of Remittances and Financial Sector Development on Economic Growth in Nigeria," Remittances Review, Remittances Review, vol. 4(1), pages 19-39, May.
    2. Anupam Das & Murshed Chowdhury, 2019. "Macroeconomic impacts of remittances in Bangladesh: The role of reverse flows," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 48(3), November.
    3. Peter Nderitu GITHAIGA, 2019. "Foreign Remittances, Private Sector Investment and Banking Sector Development," Journal of Economics and Financial Analysis, Tripal Publishing House, vol. 3(2), pages 85-112.
    4. Emon Kalyan Chowdhury & Bablu Kumar Dhar & Md.Abu Issa Gazi, 2023. "Impact of Remittance on Economic Progress: Evidence from Low-Income Asian Frontier Countries," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 14(1), pages 382-407, March.
    5. Inoue, Takeshi, 2018. "Financial development, remittances, and poverty reduction: Empirical evidence from a macroeconomic viewpoint," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 59-68.
    6. James Temitope Dada & Taiwo Akinlo, 2023. "Remittances-Finance-Growth Trilogy: Do Remittance And Financial Development Complement Or Substitute Each Other To Affect Growth In Nigeria?," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 68(236), pages 105-138, January –.
    7. Kim, Jounghyeon, 2021. "Financial development and remittances: The role of institutional quality in developing countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 386-407.
    8. Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 285-318, June.
    9. Hondroyiannis, George & Lolos, Sarantis & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2005. "Financial markets and economic growth in Greece, 1986-1999," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 173-188, April.
    10. Xu, T.T., 2012. "The role of credit in international business cycles," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1202, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    11. Siti Mas’udah, 2020. "Remittances and Lifestyle Changes Among Indonesian Overseas Migrant Workers’ Families in Their Hometowns," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 649-665, June.
    12. Allison Zhou & Carl Bonham & Byron Gangnes, 2007. "Modeling the supply and demand for tourism: a fully identified VECM approach," Working Papers 200717, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    13. Thanh Dinh Su & Canh Phuc Nguyen, 2022. "Foreign financial flows, human capital and economic growth in African developing countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3010-3031, July.
    14. Hany Abdel-Latif & Tapas Mishra & Anita Staneva, 2019. "Arab Countries between Winter and Spring: Where Democracy Shock Goes Next!," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-19, March.
    15. Sebastian Kripfganz & Daniel C. Schneider, 2020. "Response Surface Regressions for Critical Value Bounds and Approximate p‐values in Equilibrium Correction Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(6), pages 1456-1481, December.
    16. Sophocles Brissimis & Thomas Vlassopoulos, 2009. "The Interaction between Mortgage Financing and Housing Prices in Greece," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 146-164, August.
    17. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Sherif Maher Hassan, 2020. "How does the flow of remittances affect the trade balance of the Middle East and North Africa?," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 248-266, July.
    18. Ziesemer, Thomas H.W., 2012. "Worker remittances, migration, accumulation and growth in poor developing countries: Survey and analysis of direct and indirect effects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 103-118.
    19. Malley Jim & Molana Hassan, 2002. "Fiscal Policy And The Composition Of Private Consumption: Some Evidence From The U.A. And Canada," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 139-158.
    20. Phengpis, Chanwit, 2006. "Market efficiency and cointegration of spot exchange rates during periods of economic turmoil: Another look at European and Asian currency crises," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(4), pages 323-342.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ARDL; economic growth; remittances; WDI;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F24 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Remittances

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ady:wpaper:edwrg-07-2022. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Frederich Kirsten (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.uj.ac.za/edwrg .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.