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El Rol de la Inversión Pública: El Caso de Bolivia

Author

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  • Samuel Alarcón Gambarte

    (Investigador de ILADES - Universidad de Georgetown)

Abstract

Desde el año 2006, Bolivia inició un programa intensivo de inversión pública en el marco de su plan de desarrollo. Catorce años después, se analiza el rol que efectivamente ha desempeñado esta política fiscal expansiva. Se construye un Modelo de Equilibrio General Dinámico Estocástico para una economía pequeña, abierta y en desarrollo. Entre los principales resultados, se destaca que la inversión pública tiene dos roles en la economía boliviana: Externalidad positiva y costo de oportunidad. Primero, un incremento de la inversión pública genera una externalidad positiva permitiendo mayores niveles de crecimiento económico y se constituye en un mecanismo para amortiguar el efecto de shocks negativos de precios de exportación. Segundo, el uso intensivo de recursos para inversión pública tiene un efecto crowding out sobre la inversión privada y genera un deterioro de las finanzas públicas en el mediano plazo expresado en un aumento de la deuda pública y del déficit fiscal.

Suggested Citation

  • Samuel Alarcón Gambarte, 2020. "El Rol de la Inversión Pública: El Caso de Bolivia," Development Research Working Paper Series 06/2020, Institute for Advanced Development Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:adv:wpaper:202006
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inversión pública; política fiscal; ciclo económico; DSGE.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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