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Fluctuaciones Cíclicas y Cambios de Régimen en la Economía Boliviana: Un Análisis Estructural a partir de un Modelo DSGE

Author

Listed:
  • David Zeballos Coria

    (Universidad La Salle)

  • Juan Carlos Heredia Gómez

    (Universidad Andina Simón Bolívar)

  • Paola Yujra Tonconi

    (Investigadora Junior)

Abstract

El objetivo de la investigación es evaluar el comportamiento de la economía boliviana con base en un modelo de Equilibrio General Dinámico Estocástico, con cambio de Régimen (Markov-Switching DSGE). Empleando un modelo para una pequeña economía abierta, con instrumentación de la política monetaria basada en agregados y un mecanismo de intervención cambiaria, mediante técnicas de estimación bayesiana, se encuentra evidencia que parámetros estructurales del modelo, como los coeficientes de la función de reacción del Banco Central, experimentaron un cambio de régimen en 2000-2017; un comportamiento similar se verificaría también en las volatilidades de los choques estructurales experimentados por la economía boliviana en dicho período.

Suggested Citation

  • David Zeballos Coria & Juan Carlos Heredia Gómez & Paola Yujra Tonconi, 2018. "Fluctuaciones Cíclicas y Cambios de Régimen en la Economía Boliviana: Un Análisis Estructural a partir de un Modelo DSGE," Development Research Working Paper Series 07/2018, Institute for Advanced Development Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:adv:wpaper:201807
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    Cited by:

    1. Jemio Hurtado, Valeria, 2020. "Monetary rules in an open economy with distortionary subsidies and inefficient shocks: A DSGE approach for Bolivia," MPRA Paper 102374, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Jul 2020.
    2. Valdivia Coria, Joab Dan & Valdivia Coria, Daney David, 2019. "Microfundamentos de una Regla de Política Monetaria, Regla de Poole [Microfundaments of a Monetary Policy Rule, Poole's Rule]," MPRA Paper 93854, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Valdivia Coria, Joab Dan & Valdivia Coria, Daney David, 2019. "Microfundaments of a Monetary Policy Rule, Poole's Rule," MPRA Paper 95489, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    DFluctuaciones económicas; Modelo DSGE; Markov Switching; Estimación Bayesiana.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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