IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/adv/wpaper/200612.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modeling Amazon Deforestation for Policy Purposes

Author

Listed:
  • Clive W. J. Granger

    (University of California - San Diego)

  • Lykke E. Andersen

    (Institute for Advanced Development Studies)

Abstract

Brazil has long ago removed most of the perverse government incentives that stimulated massive deforestation in the Amazon in the 70s and 80s, but one highly controversial policy remains: Road building. While data is now abundantly available due to the constant satellite surveillance of the Amazon, the analytical methods typically used to analyze the impact of roads on natural vegetation cover are methodologically weak and not very helpful to guide public policy. This paper discusses the respective weaknesses of typical GIS analysis and typical municipality level regression analysis, and shows what would be needed to construct an ideal model of deforestation processes. It also presents an alternative approach that is much less demanding in terms of modeling and estimation and more useful for policy makers as well.

Suggested Citation

  • Clive W. J. Granger & Lykke E. Andersen, 2006. "Modeling Amazon Deforestation for Policy Purposes," Development Research Working Paper Series 12/2006, Institute for Advanced Development Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:adv:wpaper:200612
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.inesad.edu.bo/pdf/wp12_2006.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. João S. Campari, 2005. "The Economics of Deforestation in the Amazon," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3465.
    2. Lykke E. Andersen & Juan Carlos Ledezma & Martin Vargas, 2006. "Un Mosaico de Conservación, Desarrollo Humano y Tensiones en el Corredor Amboró-Madidi," Development Research Working Paper Series 04/2006, Institute for Advanced Development Studies.
    3. Lykke E. Andersen, 2006. "El Impacto de los Cambios en el Uso de Tierra en el Departamento de Santa Cruz," Development Research Working Paper Series 11/2006, Institute for Advanced Development Studies.
    4. Granger, Clive W. J. & Jeon, Yongil, 2004. "Thick modeling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 323-343, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lykke E. Andersen & Clive W. J. Granger, 2007. "Modeling Amazon deforestation for policy purposes: reconciling conservation priorities and human development," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 8(3), pages 201-210, September.
    2. Andersen, Lykke E., 2014. "La economía del cambio climático en Bolivia: Impactos sobre la biodiversidad," Coediciones, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 39835 edited by Cepal.
    3. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Morana, Claudio, 2009. "International macroeconomic dynamics: A factor vector autoregressive approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 432-444, March.
    4. Albacete, Rebeca, 2005. "Forecasting inflation in the euro area using monthly time series models and quarterly econometric models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws050401, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    5. M. Hashem Pesaran & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2004. "Model Averaging and Value-at-Risk Based Evaluation of Large Multi Asset Volatility Models for Risk Management," CESifo Working Paper Series 1358, CESifo.
    6. Morana, Claudio, 2014. "Insights on the global macro-finance interface: Structural sources of risk factor fluctuations and the cross-section of expected stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 64-79.
    7. Cassola, Nuno & Morana, Claudio, 2010. "Comovements in volatility in the euro money market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 525-539, April.
    8. Fabio Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2010. "Business cycle comovement in the G-7: common shocks or common transmission mechanisms?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(18), pages 2327-2345.
    9. Lahiri, Kajal & Yang, Liu, 2013. "Forecasting Binary Outcomes," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1025-1106, Elsevier.
    10. Hall, Stephen G. & Mitchell, James, 2007. "Combining density forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-13.
    11. Morana, Claudio, 2017. "Macroeconomic and financial effects of oil price shocks: Evidence for the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 82-96.
    12. Szafranek, Karol, 2019. "Bagged neural networks for forecasting Polish (low) inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1042-1059.
    13. Lim, G.C. & McNelis, Paul D., 2008. "Computational Macroeconomics for the Open Economy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262123061, April.
    14. Nuno Cassola & Claudio Morana, 2008. "Modeling Short-Term Interest Rate Spreads in the Euro Money Market," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(4), pages 1-37, December.
    15. Mr. Angel J. Ubide & Mr. Kevin Ross, 2001. "Mind the Gap: What is the Best Measure of Slack in the Euro Area?," IMF Working Papers 2001/203, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Morana, Claudio, 2013. "Oil price dynamics, macro-finance interactions and the role of financial speculation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 206-226.
    17. Morales-Arias, Leonardo & Moura, Guilherme V., 2013. "Adaptive forecasting of exchange rates with panel data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 493-509.
    18. Albacete, Rebeca, 2004. "Considerations on economic forecasting: method developed in the bulletin of EU and US inflation and macroeconomic analysis," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws045013, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    19. W A Razzak, 2002. "Monetary policy and forecasting inflation with and without the output gap," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2002/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    20. Claudio Morana, 2014. "New insights on the US OIS spreads term structure during the recent financial turmoil," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(5), pages 291-317, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Deforestation; Amazon; Brazil; econometric modeling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:adv:wpaper:200612. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lykke Andersen (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inesabo.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.