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Data revisions and the statistical relation of global mean sea-level and temperature

Author

Listed:
  • Eric Hillebrand

    (Aarhus University and CREATES)

  • Søren Johansen

    (University of Copenhagen and CREATES)

  • Torben Schmith

    (Danish Meteorological Institute)

Abstract

We study the stability of the estimated statistical relation of global mean temperature and global mean sea-level with regard to data revisions. Using three different model specifications proposed in the literature, we compare coefficient estimates and forecasts using two different vintages of the annual time series. We find that two out of the three models, proposed in [1] and in [2], are very sensitive to the revisions. The magnitude of the estimated coefficient of influence as well as the implied long-term forecasts change drastically between the two data vintages considered. The model proposed in [3], on the other hand, reacts robustly to the revisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Hillebrand & Søren Johansen & Torben Schmith, 2015. "Data revisions and the statistical relation of global mean sea-level and temperature," CREATES Research Papers 2015-23, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    • Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2015-23
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    File URL: https://repec.econ.au.dk/repec/creates/rp/15/rp15_23.pdf
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    Keywords

    Sea-level; temperature; semi-empirical models; data revisions.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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