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Do Realized Skewness and Kurtosis Predict the Cross-Section of Equity Returns?

Author

Listed:
  • Diego Amaya

    (HEC Montreal - Department of Management Sciences)

  • Peter Christoffersen

    (University of Toronto - Rotman School of Management and CREATES)

  • Kris Jacobs

    (University of Houston - C.T. Bauer College of Business)

  • Aurelio Vasquez

    (Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México (ITAM) - Department of Business Administration)

Abstract

Yes. We use intraday data to compute weekly realized variance, skewness and kurtosis for individual equities and assess whether this week?s realized moments predict next week?s stock returns in the cross-section. We sort stocks each week according to their past realized moments, form decile portfolios and analyze subsequent weekly returns. We ?nd a very strong negative relationship between realized skewness and next week?s stock returns, and a positive relationship between realized kurtosis and next week?s stock returns. We do not ?nd a strong relationship between realized volatility and stock returns. A trading strategy that buys stocks in the lowest realized skewness decile and sells stocks in the highest realized skewness decile generates an average weekly return of 43 basis points with a t-statistic of 8:91. A similar strategy that buys stocks with high realized kurtosis and sells stocks with low realized kurtosis produces a weekly return of 16 basis points with a t-statistic of 2:98. Our results are robust across sample periods, portfolio weightings, and proxies for ?rm characteristics, and they are not captured by the Fama-French and Carhart factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Diego Amaya & Peter Christoffersen & Kris Jacobs & Aurelio Vasquez, 2011. "Do Realized Skewness and Kurtosis Predict the Cross-Section of Equity Returns?," CREATES Research Papers 2011-44, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    • Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2011-44
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    File URL: https://repec.econ.au.dk/repec/creates/rp/11/rp11_44.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lin, Yuehao & Lehnert, Thorsten & Wolff, Christian, 2019. "Skewness risk premium: Theory and empirical evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 174-185.
    2. Li, Jia & Patton, Andrew J., 2018. "Asymptotic inference about predictive accuracy using high frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 203(2), pages 223-240.
    3. Campbell R. Harvey & Yan Liu & Heqing Zhu, 2014. ". . . and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," NBER Working Papers 20592, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Ruan, Xinfeng & Zhu, Wenli & Huang, Jiexiang & Zhang, Jin E., 2016. "Equilibrium asset pricing under the Lévy process with stochastic volatility and moment risk premiums," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 326-338.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Realized volatility; skewness; kurtosis; equity markets; return prediction.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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