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Simulating publication bias

Author

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  • Martin Paldam

    (Department of Economics and Business, Aarhus University)

Abstract

Economic research typically runs J regressions for each selected for publication – it is often selected as the ‘best’ of the regressions. The paper examines five possible meanings of the word ‘best’: SR0 is ideal selection with no bias; SR1 is polishing: selection by statistical fit; SR2 is censoring: selection by the size of estimate; SR3 selects the optimal combination of fit and size; and SR4 selects the first satisficing result. The last four SRs are steered by priors and result in bias. The MST and the FAT-PET have been developed for detection and correction of such bias. The simulations are made by data variation, while the model is the same. It appears that SR0 generates narrow funnels much at odds with observed funnels, while the other four funnels look more realistic. SR1 to SR4 give the mean a substantial bias that confirms the prior causing the bias. The FAT-PET MRA works well in finding the true value.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Paldam, 2013. "Simulating publication bias," Economics Working Papers 2013-27, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    • Handle: RePEc:aah:aarhec:2013-27
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    File URL: https://repec.econ.au.dk/repec/afn/wp/13/wp13_27.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Meta-analysis; selection of regressions; publication bias;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B4 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology
    • C9 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments

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