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Pristupanje Europskom tečajnom mehanizmu ERM II: iskustva novih članica Europske unije i slučaj Hrvatske

In: Održivost javnih financija na putu u monetarnu uniju

Author

Listed:
  • Milan Deskar-Škrbić

    (Croatian National Bank)

  • Tomislav Ćorić

    (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb)

Abstract

Republika Hrvatska uputila je u srpnju 2019. godine pismo namjere o sudjelovanju u tečajnom mehanizmu ERM II. Cilj ovoga rada je pridonijeti razumijevanju procesa ulaska i sudjelovanja u tečajnom mehanizmu ERM II kroz analizu institucionalnog okvira i obilježja tog mehanizma te analizu iskustva pojedinih novih zemalja članica EU-a koje su već uvele euro. Također, u radu je posebna pozornost usmjerena na spremnost hrvatskoga gospodarstva za skori ulazak u taj tečajni mehanizam. Iskustva novih zemalja članica, koje su uvele euro, pokazuju da uspješan boravak u ERM-u II ovisi o domaćim politikama, ali i stupnju realne konvergencije te vanjskim šokovima. Iskustvo Slovačke također pokazuje da je središnji paritet važno definirati blizu ravnotežnog tečaja, koji odgovara makroekonomskim fundamentima u srednjem roku, a u radu se raspravlja i o važnosti adekvatnog odabira granica fluktuacije. Zaključci rada upućuju na to kako je Hrvatska spremna za pristupanje ERM-u II s obzirom na to da zadovoljava kriterije nominalne konvergencije te je ostvarila višu razinu konvergencije dohotka i cijena od većine novih zemalja članica u trenutku ulaska u ERM II u prošlosti.

Suggested Citation

  • Milan Deskar-Škrbić & Tomislav Ćorić, 2020. "Pristupanje Europskom tečajnom mehanizmu ERM II: iskustva novih članica Europske unije i slučaj Hrvatske," EFZG Occasional Publications (Department of Finance), in: Gordan Družić & Hrvoje Šimović (ed.),Održivost javnih financija na putu u monetarnu uniju, chapter 16, pages 252-265, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb.
    • Handle: RePEc:zag:financ:2016
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