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ELO Team Strength Ratings: Predicting Win Probabilities and Point Spreads in NFL Games in 2017-2018

In: Dr Z’s NFL Guidebook

Author

Listed:
  • William T. Ziemba
  • Leonard C. MacLean

Abstract

The following sections are included:Win Probability in GamesCompetitor Ratings — the ELO systemFiveThirtyEight ELO NFL RatingsPoint SpreadTesting the ELO Each WeekConclusion

Suggested Citation

  • William T. Ziemba & Leonard C. MacLean, 2018. "ELO Team Strength Ratings: Predicting Win Probabilities and Point Spreads in NFL Games in 2017-2018," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Dr Z’s NFL Guidebook, chapter 17, pages 299-314, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:wschap:9789813276505_0017
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    NFL Players ; Coaches; Strategies; Mean Reversion; Efficient Markets; Sports Enthusiasts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Z23 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics - - - Finance
    • Z21 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics - - - Industry Studies
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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